Match summary
AC Milan vs Atalanta (Serie A), 18/10/2026, finished 3-2: AC Milan won. Before the match Jarvis gave AC Milan 53%, the draw 26% and Atalanta 21%; the final result (AC Milan win) had a 53% chance. The score 3-2 had a 3.0% chance; the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 5 goals; Jarvis expected 2.8.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the final result below.
Full-time
AC Milan
53%
Draw
26%
Atalanta
21%
Probability trajectory · full match
Final result: AC Milan 3 – 2 Atalanta · AC Milan winJarvis gave this outcome: 53% ✓Final call: Jarvis predicted it right from before kick-off
Jarvis supercomputer
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours AC Milan, negative favours Atalanta) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Tap a row to see how that market has moved.
Supremacy (AC Milan - Atalanta)Actual +1+0.71
Expected total goalsActual 52.79
Expected goals AC Milan / AtalantaActual 3 / 21.75 / 1.04
Market-standard price (decimal)
AC Milan win1.90
Draw3.83
Atalanta win4.71
Over 2.51.89
Under 2.52.12
This is the market-standard price. Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 2.5 goalsHappened · Jarvis right from min 23′52.9%
Over 3.5 goalsHappened · Jarvis right from min 58′30.6%
Over 1.5 goalsHappened · Jarvis right from before kick-off78.0%
Full Asian handicap (predicted probability)
Lines shown from AC Milan's side
AC Milan −0.5Happened · Jarvis right from before kick-off52.7%
AC Milan −0.75Half win47.0%
AC Milan −1.0Push41.3%
AC Milan −0.25Happened · Jarvis right from before kick-off59.2%
AC Milan −1.25Half loss35.6%
AC Milan draw no bet (0.0)Happened · Jarvis right from before kick-off65.7%
AC Milan −1.5Did not happen · Jarvis right from min 82′30.0%
AC Milan +0.25Happened · Jarvis right from before kick-off72.2%
AC Milan −1.75Did not happen · Jarvis right from min 82′25.8%
AC Milan −2.0Did not happen · Jarvis right from min 79′21.7%
AC Milan +0.5Happened · Jarvis right from before kick-off78.8%
AC Milan +0.75Happened · Jarvis right from before kick-off82.0%
AC Milan +1.0Happened · Jarvis right from before kick-off85.3%
AC Milan +1.5Happened · Jarvis right from before kick-off91.8%
AC Milan +2.0Happened · Jarvis right from before kick-off94.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis supercomputer, not bookmaker prices.
Goal margin
AC Milan wins by more than 1 goalsDid not happen · Jarvis right from min 82′30%
Atalanta wins by more than 1 goalsDid not happen · Jarvis right from before kick-off8%
Both teams to score
Yes / noHappened · Jarvis right from min 66′54.8% / 45.2%
First half
First-half result (AC Milan / draw / Atalanta)38.7% / 42.4% / 18.9%
A goal in the first half70.3%
Two or more in the first half37.0%
Half-time then full-time
AC Milan lead at half-time then AC Milan win33.1%
Level at half-time then AC Milan win17.9%
Level at half-time then draw16.1%
Corners
Expected total corners9.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%
Match events
- 20′SubstitutionRelja Obric on, Sead Kolasinac off
- 24′Goal (Penalty)Goncalo Ramos
- 41′Yellow cardAdrien Rabiot
- 43′GoalAdrien Rabiot (assist: Diego Moreira)
- 53′SubstitutionOmari Hutchinson on, Samuel Chukwueze off
- 57′Missed penaltyGoncalo Ramos
- 57′GoalMario Gila (assist: Adrien Rabiot)
- 59′SubstitutionGianluca Gaetano on, Mario Pasalic off
- 59′SubstitutionNicola Zalewski on, Jonathan Rowe off
- 66′GoalGianluca Gaetano (assist: Nicola Zalewski)
- 68′Yellow cardEderson Jose dos Santos
- 75′SubstitutionGianluca Scamacca on, Lazar Samardzic off
- 75′SubstitutionDavide Zappacosta on, Lorenzo Bernasconi off
- 75′SubstitutionArdon Jashari on, Christian Pulisic off
- 75′SubstitutionPervis Estupinan on, Yunus Musah off
- 75′SubstitutionRuben Loftus-Cheek on, Luka Modric off
- 78′Yellow cardRelja Obric
- 81′GoalNikola Krstovic (assist: Raoul Bellanova)
- 84′SubstitutionFikayo Tomori on, Mario Gila off
Match statistics
AC MilanAtalanta
56Possession44
2.49Expected goals (xG)1.71
11Total shots12
6Shots on target4
2Corners2
3Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Offsides1
2Saves3
91Pass accuracy (%)91
Player ratings
| 9.0 | A. Rabiot · AC Milan | 1 goal 1 assist |
| 7.9 | Mario Gila · AC Milan | 1 goal |
| 7.6 | N. Krstovic · Atalanta | 1 goal |
| 7.3 | Diego Moreira · AC Milan | 1 assist |
| 7.2 | G. Gaetano · Atalanta | 1 goal |
| 7.0 | Goncalo Ramos · AC Milan | 1 goal |
AC Milan vs Atalanta lineups
AC MilanFormation 3-4-3Coach: Ruben Amorim
| 16 | M. Maignan | GK |
| 34 | Mario Gila | DF |
| 5 | K. De Winter | DF |
| 31 | S. Pavlovic | DF |
| 21 | S. Chukwueze | MF |
| 80 | Y. Musah | MF |
| 14 | L. Modric | MF |
| 22 | Diego Moreira | MF |
| 12 | A. Rabiot | FW |
| 9 | Goncalo Ramos | FW |
| 11 | C. Pulisic | FW |
| 35 | V. Vladimirov | DF |
| 96 | L. Torriani | GK |
| 23 | F. Tomori | DF |
| 42 | F. Terracciano | DF |
| 8 | R. Loftus-Cheek | MF |
| 30 | A. Jashari | MF |
| 20 | O. Hutchinson | FW |
| 2 | P. Estupinan | DF |
| 13 | S. Bocoum | DF |
| 28 | C. Comotto | MF |
| 70 | A. Cisse | MF |
| 73 | F. Camarda | FW |
| 41 | L. P. Bouyer | GK |
| 33 | D. Bartesaghi | DF |
AtalantaFormation 4-3-3Coach: M. Sarri
| 29 | M. Carnesecchi | GK |
| 16 | R. Bellanova | DF |
| 31 | T. Kristensen | DF |
| 23 | S. Kolasinac | DF |
| 47 | L. Bernasconi | DF |
| 10 | L. Samardzic | MF |
| 13 | Ederson | MF |
| 8 | Mario Pasalic | MF |
| 17 | C. De Ketelaere | FW |
| 90 | N. Krstovic | FW |
| 11 | J. Rowe | FW |
| 70 | G. Gaetano | MF |
| 77 | D. Zappacosta | DF |
| 41 | J. Idele | MF |
| 40 | R. ObriA | DF |
| 53 | M. Plaia | DF |
| 9 | G. Scamacca | FW |
| 51 | M. Sonzogni | GK |
| 57 | M. Sportiello | GK |
| 59 | N. Zalewski | MF |
| 45 | D. Pounga | MF |
AC Milan vs Atalanta injury report and team news
AC Milan- M. GabbiaOut · Thigh Injury
- A. SaelemaekersOut · Ankle Injury
Atalanta- E. ElmasOut · Red Card
- I. HienOut · Muscle Injury
- F. KessieOut · Calf Injury
- O. KossounouOut · Thigh Injury
- G. ScalviniOut · Thigh Injury
- R. BellanovaDoubtful · Thigh Injury
- G. RaspadoriDoubtful · Thigh Injury
- K. SulemanaDoubtful · Knee Injury
AC Milan vs Atalanta team form
AC MilanWDWL| 15/10/2026 | Red Bull Salzburg (away) | 4–0 |
| 11/10/2026 | Sassuolo (away) | 1–1 |
| 20/09/2026 | Lecce (home) | 3–0 |
| 16/09/2026 | Benfica (home) | 0–2 |
AtalantaWWLL| 15/10/2026 | Pafos (home) | 3–1 |
| 12/10/2026 | Venezia (home) | 3–1 |
| 20/09/2026 | Juventus (away) | 0–2 |
| 12/09/2026 | Cagliari (home) | 1–2 |
AC Milan vs Atalanta head to head (H2H)
Head to head record, last 10 meetings: AC Milan won 2, drew 3, lost 5. AC Milan scored 13 and conceded 14 goals.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2026 | AC Milan | 2–3 | Atalanta |
| 28/10/2025 | Atalanta | 1–1 | AC Milan |
| 20/04/2025 | AC Milan | 0–1 | Atalanta |
| 06/12/2024 | Atalanta | 2–1 | AC Milan |
| 25/02/2024 | AC Milan | 1–1 | Atalanta |
| 10/01/2024 | AC Milan | 1–2 | Atalanta |
| 09/12/2023 | Atalanta | 3–2 | AC Milan |
| 26/02/2023 | AC Milan | 2–0 | Atalanta |
| 21/08/2022 | Atalanta | 1–1 | AC Milan |
| 15/05/2022 | AC Milan | 2–0 | Atalanta |
Match information
- Referee
- Daniele Chiffi
- Venue
- San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
- Round
- 7
Next fixtures of both teams
Other matches on 18/10 (GMT+7)
- Roma vs Genoa01:45 · Serie A2–0
- Lille vs Brest01:45 · Ligue 11–1
- ESTAC Troyes vs Lens01:45 · Ligue 11–3
- Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao02:00 · La Liga0–0
- Udinese vs Lecce17:30 · Serie A0–3
- Osasuna vs Racing Santander19:00 · La Liga2–0
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.