Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Belgium
67%
Draw
21%
Iran
12%
Actual result: Belgium 0 – 0 Iran · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 21%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Belgium, negative favours Iran) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Belgium - Iran)+1.24
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Belgium / Iran1.87 / 0.63
Both teams to score (yes / no)39.3% / 60.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.1%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Belgium / draw / Iran)47.6% / 40.4% / 12.0%
A goal in the first half67.7%
Two or more in the first half30.9%
Half-time then full-time
Belgium lead at half-time then Belgium win43.5%
Level at half-time then Belgium win21.3%
Level at half-time then draw14.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Belgium's side
Belgium −2.030.4%
Belgium −1.7535.6%
Belgium −1.540.8%
Belgium −1.2547.5%
Belgium −1.054.1%
Belgium −0.7560.7%
Belgium −0.567.3%
Belgium −0.2572.5%
Belgium draw no bet (0.0)77.7%
Belgium +0.2582.9%
Belgium +0.588.1%
Belgium +0.7590.4%
Belgium +1.092.6%
Belgium +1.597.1%
Belgium +2.098.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Belgium win1.49
Draw4.81
Iran win8.43
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
15.5%
2–0
14.4%
1–1
9.5%
2–1
9.0%
3–0
9.0%
0–0
8.1%
Goal margin
Belgium wins by more than 1 goals41%
Iran wins by more than 1 goals3%