Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Spain
87%
Draw
9%
Saudi Arabia
4%
Actual result: Spain 4 – 0 Saudi Arabia · Spain winJarvis gave this outcome: 87% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Spain, negative favours Saudi Arabia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Spain - Saudi Arabia)+2.32
Expected total goals3.00
Expected goals Spain / Saudi Arabia2.66 / 0.34
Both teams to score (yes / no)25.9% / 74.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.1%
Over 2.5 goals 57.6%
Over 3.5 goals 35.2%
First half
First-half result (Spain / draw / Saudi Arabia)65.3% / 29.0% / 5.6%
A goal in the first half75.0%
Two or more in the first half38.1%
Half-time then full-time
Spain lead at half-time then Spain win63.3%
Level at half-time then Spain win20.8%
Level at half-time then draw6.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Spain's side
Spain −2.054.3%
Spain −1.7560.2%
Spain −1.566.1%
Spain −1.2571.4%
Spain −1.076.7%
Spain −0.7582.0%
Spain −0.587.2%
Spain −0.2589.5%
Spain draw no bet (0.0)91.7%
Spain +0.2593.9%
Spain +0.596.1%
Spain +0.7596.9%
Spain +1.097.8%
Spain +1.599.6%
Spain +2.099.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Spain win1.15
Draw11.33
Saudi Arabia win25.49
Over 2.51.74
Under 2.52.36
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
2–0
17.6%
3–0
15.6%
1–0
14.2%
4–0
10.4%
2–1
6.0%
5–0
5.5%
Goal margin
Spain wins by more than 1 goals66%
Saudi Arabia wins by more than 1 goals0%