Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Uruguay
66%
Draw
23%
Cape Verde
11%
Actual result: Uruguay 2 – 2 Cape Verde · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 23%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Uruguay, negative favours Cape Verde) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Uruguay - Cape Verde)+1.24
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Uruguay / Cape Verde1.87 / 0.63
Both teams to score (yes / no)40.3% / 59.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.1%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Uruguay / draw / Cape Verde)46.8% / 42.1% / 11.2%
A goal in the first half66.8%
Two or more in the first half31.7%
Half-time then full-time
Uruguay lead at half-time then Uruguay win43.1%
Level at half-time then Uruguay win21.8%
Level at half-time then draw15.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Uruguay's side
Uruguay −2.030.4%
Uruguay −1.7535.6%
Uruguay −1.540.8%
Uruguay −1.2547.2%
Uruguay −1.053.6%
Uruguay −0.7559.9%
Uruguay −0.566.3%
Uruguay −0.2572.0%
Uruguay draw no bet (0.0)77.7%
Uruguay +0.2583.4%
Uruguay +0.589.2%
Uruguay +0.7591.1%
Uruguay +1.093.1%
Uruguay +1.597.1%
Uruguay +2.098.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Uruguay win1.51
Draw4.38
Cape Verde win9.22
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
14.5%
2–0
14.4%
1–1
10.5%
0–0
9.1%
2–1
9.0%
3–0
9.0%
Goal margin
Uruguay wins by more than 1 goals41%
Cape Verde wins by more than 1 goals3%