Match summary
Ecuador vs Curacao (World Cup), 21/06/2026, finished 0-0: a draw.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Ecuador
87%
Draw
9%
Curacao
4%
Actual result: Ecuador 0 – 0 Curacao · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 9%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Ecuador, negative favours Curacao) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Ecuador - Curacao)+2.30
Expected total goals2.98
Expected goals Ecuador / Curacao2.64 / 0.34
Both teams to score (yes / no)25.7% / 74.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.9%
Over 2.5 goals 57.2%
Over 3.5 goals 34.8%
First half
First-half result (Ecuador / draw / Curacao)65.2% / 29.2% / 5.6%
A goal in the first half74.8%
Two or more in the first half37.8%
Half-time then full-time
Ecuador lead at half-time then Ecuador win63.1%
Level at half-time then Ecuador win20.9%
Level at half-time then draw6.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Ecuador's side
Ecuador −2.054.1%
Ecuador −1.7560.0%
Ecuador −1.565.9%
Ecuador −1.2571.2%
Ecuador −1.076.5%
Ecuador −0.7581.8%
Ecuador −0.587.2%
Ecuador −0.2589.4%
Ecuador draw no bet (0.0)91.6%
Ecuador +0.2593.8%
Ecuador +0.596.1%
Ecuador +0.7596.9%
Ecuador +1.097.8%
Ecuador +1.599.6%
Ecuador +2.099.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Ecuador win1.15
Draw11.22
Curacao win25.43
Over 2.51.75
Under 2.52.34
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
2–0
17.7%
3–0
15.6%
1–0
14.3%
4–0
10.3%
2–1
6.0%
5–0
5.5%
Goal margin
Ecuador wins by more than 1 goals66%
Curacao wins by more than 1 goals0%
Probability trajectory · full match
Other matches on 21/06 (GMT+7)
- Netherlands vs Sweden00:00 · World Cup5–1
- Germany vs Ivory Coast03:00 · World Cup2–1
- Tunisia vs Japan11:00 · World Cup0–4
- Spain vs Saudi Arabia23:00 · World Cup4–0
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.