Brazilian Serie A

Botafogo FR vs Santos prediction

2 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Botafogo FR vs Santos (Serie A), 17/07/2026, finished 2-1: Botafogo FR won. Before the match Jarvis gave Botafogo FR 43%, the draw 29% and Santos 28%; the actual result had a 43% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.6.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Botafogo FR

43%

Draw

29%

Santos

28%

Actual result: Botafogo FR 2 – 1 Santos · Botafogo FR winJarvis gave this outcome: 43% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Botafogo FR, negative favours Santos) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Botafogo FR - Santos)+0.33

Expected total goals2.61

Expected goals Botafogo FR / Santos1.47 / 1.14

Both teams to score (yes / no)53.9% / 46.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 75.0%

Over 2.5 goals 48.4%

Over 3.5 goals 26.6%

First half

First-half result (Botafogo FR / draw / Santos)32.3% / 44.9% / 22.8%

A goal in the first half67.8%

Two or more in the first half34.1%

Half-time then full-time

Botafogo FR lead at half-time then Botafogo FR win26.2%

Level at half-time then draw18.1%

Santos lead at half-time then Santos win16.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Botafogo FR's side

Botafogo FR −2.015.2%

Botafogo FR −1.7518.6%

Botafogo FR −1.522.0%

Botafogo FR −1.2527.3%

Botafogo FR −1.032.6%

Botafogo FR −0.7537.9%

Botafogo FR −0.543.2%

Botafogo FR −0.2550.5%

Botafogo FR draw no bet (0.0)57.7%

Botafogo FR +0.2564.9%

Botafogo FR +0.572.1%

Botafogo FR +0.7576.2%

Botafogo FR +1.080.2%

Botafogo FR +1.588.3%

Botafogo FR +2.092.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Botafogo FR win2.31

Draw3.46

Santos win3.59

Over 2.52.07

Under 2.51.94

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Botafogo FR wins by more than 1 goals22%

Santos wins by more than 1 goals12%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 17/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.