UEFA Europa League Qualifiers

IF Vestri vs Qarabag FK prediction

0 – 3

Full-time

Match summary

IF Vestri vs Qarabag FK (Europa League), 17/07/2026, finished 0-3: Qarabag FK won. Before the match Jarvis gave IF Vestri 5%, the draw 10% and Qarabag FK 85%; the actual result had a 85% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-3. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.6.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

IF Vestri

Draw

10%

Qarabag FK

85%

Actual result: IF Vestri 0 – 3 Qarabag FK · Qarabag FK winJarvis gave this outcome: 85% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours IF Vestri, negative favours Qarabag FK) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (IF Vestri - Qarabag FK)-2.39

Expected total goals3.60

Expected goals IF Vestri / Qarabag FK0.61 / 2.99

Both teams to score (yes / no)42.8% / 57.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 87.0%

Over 2.5 goals 69.7%

Over 3.5 goals 48.5%

First half

First-half result (IF Vestri / draw / Qarabag FK)8.0% / 26.5% / 65.5%

A goal in the first half80.8%

Two or more in the first half47.5%

Half-time then full-time

Qarabag FK lead at half-time then Qarabag FK win62.8%

Level at half-time then Qarabag FK win18.8%

Level at half-time then draw5.6%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from IF Vestri's side

IF Vestri −2.00.6%

IF Vestri −1.750.8%

IF Vestri −1.51.1%

IF Vestri −1.252.1%

IF Vestri −1.03.1%

IF Vestri −0.754.2%

IF Vestri −0.55.2%

IF Vestri −0.257.6%

IF Vestri draw no bet (0.0)10.0%

IF Vestri +0.2512.4%

IF Vestri +0.514.8%

IF Vestri +0.7519.5%

IF Vestri +1.024.1%

IF Vestri +1.533.5%

IF Vestri +2.044.2%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

IF Vestri win19.21

Draw10.42

Qarabag FK win1.17

Over 2.51.43

Under 2.53.30

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

IF Vestri wins by more than 1 goals1%

Qarabag FK wins by more than 1 goals66%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 17/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.