UEFA Europa League Qualifiers

Derry City vs CSKA Sofia prediction

1 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Derry City vs CSKA Sofia (Europa League), 17/07/2026, finished 1-2: CSKA Sofia won. Before the match Jarvis gave Derry City 24%, the draw 25% and CSKA Sofia 50%; the actual result had a 50% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.0.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Derry City

24%

Draw

25%

CSKA Sofia

50%

Actual result: Derry City 1 – 2 CSKA Sofia · CSKA Sofia winJarvis gave this outcome: 50% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Derry City, negative favours CSKA Sofia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Derry City - CSKA Sofia)-0.60

Expected total goals3.00

Expected goals Derry City / CSKA Sofia1.20 / 1.80

Both teams to score (yes / no)59.4% / 40.6%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 81.2%

Over 2.5 goals 57.7%

Over 3.5 goals 35.3%

First half

First-half result (Derry City / draw / CSKA Sofia)21.4% / 40.8% / 37.8%

A goal in the first half73.0%

Two or more in the first half40.2%

Half-time then full-time

CSKA Sofia lead at half-time then CSKA Sofia win31.6%

Level at half-time then CSKA Sofia win16.8%

Level at half-time then draw14.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Derry City's side

Derry City −2.06.7%

Derry City −1.758.4%

Derry City −1.510.2%

Derry City −1.2513.7%

Derry City −1.017.2%

Derry City −0.7520.8%

Derry City −0.524.3%

Derry City −0.2530.6%

Derry City draw no bet (0.0)36.9%

Derry City +0.2543.2%

Derry City +0.549.5%

Derry City +0.7555.0%

Derry City +1.060.4%

Derry City +1.571.3%

Derry City +2.079.2%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Derry City win4.12

Draw3.96

CSKA Sofia win1.98

Over 2.51.73

Under 2.52.37

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Derry City wins by more than 1 goals10%

CSKA Sofia wins by more than 1 goals29%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 17/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.