Match summary
Burnley vs Wolves (English Sky Bet Championship), 17/10/2026, finished 1-2: Wolves won. Before the match Jarvis gave Burnley 30%, the draw 28% and Wolves 41%; the actual result had a 41% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.7.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Burnley
30%
Draw
28%
Wolves
41%
Actual result: Burnley 1 – 2 Wolves · Wolves winJarvis gave this outcome: 41% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Burnley, negative favours Wolves) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Burnley - Wolves)-0.24
Expected total goals2.72
Expected goals Burnley / Wolves1.24 / 1.48
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.3% / 43.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.0%
Over 2.5 goals 51.1%
Over 3.5 goals 29.0%
First half
First-half result (Burnley / draw / Wolves)24.5% / 44.1% / 31.4%
A goal in the first half69.2%
Two or more in the first half35.9%
Half-time then full-time
Wolves lead at half-time then Wolves win25.0%
Burnley lead at half-time then Burnley win17.6%
Level at half-time then draw17.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Burnley's side
Burnley −2.08.9%
Burnley −1.7511.1%
Burnley −1.513.4%
Burnley −1.2517.6%
Burnley −1.021.8%
Burnley −0.7526.0%
Burnley −0.530.2%
Burnley −0.2537.3%
Burnley draw no bet (0.0)44.4%
Burnley +0.2551.5%
Burnley +0.558.7%
Burnley +0.7563.8%
Burnley +1.068.9%
Burnley +1.579.1%
Burnley +2.085.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Burnley win3.32
Draw3.51
Wolves win2.42
Over 2.51.96
Under 2.52.04
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Burnley wins by more than 1 goals13%
Wolves wins by more than 1 goals21%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards2.8
2.5+ cards in the match54%
Probability trajectory · full match
Match events
- 20′GoalJamie Vardy (assist: Jacob Bruun Larsen)
- 39′GoalFer Lopez (assist: Sean Neave)
- 61′SubstitutionMateus Mane on, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde off
- 61′SubstitutionArmando Broja on, Jamie Vardy off
- 61′SubstitutionDastan Satpaev on, Jacob Bruun Larsen off
- 63′Yellow cardReo Hatate
- 70′Yellow cardSean Neave
- 71′SubstitutionThomas Doyle on, Fer Lopez off
- 72′SubstitutionTawanda Chirewa on, Sean Neave off
- 72′GoalTawanda Chirewa (assist: Mateus Mane)
- 75′SubstitutionMarcus Edwards on, Reo Hatate off
- 87′SubstitutionLadislav Krejci on, Ghislain Konan off
- 87′SubstitutionHugo Bueno on, Rafiki Said Ahamada off
- 87′SubstitutionUgo Raghouber on, Max Alleyne off
- 90′Yellow cardKyle Walker
Match statistics
BurnleyWolves
47Possession53
1.04Expected goals (xG)1.85
15Total shots20
4Shots on target8
3Corners6
13Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
7Offsides0
5Saves3
82Pass accuracy (%)87
Player ratings
| 7.8 | Fer Lopez · Wolves | 1 goal |
| 7.7 | J. Bruun Larsen · Burnley | 1 assist |
| 7.6 | T. Chirewa · Wolves | 1 goal |
| 7.6 | J. Vardy · Burnley | 1 goal |
| 7.4 | M. Mane · Wolves | 1 assist |
| 7.2 | S. Neave · Wolves | 1 assist |
Burnley vs Wolves lineups
BurnleyFormation 4-2-3-1Coach: N. Hayen
| 37 | G. Coudert | GK |
| 2 | K. Walker | DF |
| 18 | H. Ekdal | DF |
| 44 | Igor | DF |
| 23 | Lucas Pires | DF |
| 3 | Max Alleyne | MF |
| 5 | R. Hatate | MF |
| 19 | L. Ramazani | MF |
| 29 | J. Laurent | MF |
| 7 | J. Bruun Larsen | MF |
| 9 | J. Vardy | FW |
| 27 | A. Broja | FW |
| 30 | L. Castell | FW |
| 10 | M. Edwards | FW |
| 17 | A. Hountondji | FW |
| 8 | U. Raghouber | MF |
| 14 | C. Roberts | DF |
| 12 | D. Satpaev | FW |
| 22 | O. Sonne | DF |
| 1 | M. Weiss | GK |
WolvesFormation 4-2-3-1Coach: Cesar Peixoto
| 1 | Jose Sa | GK |
| 38 | J. Tchatchoua | DF |
| 34 | N. Djiga | DF |
| 24 | Toti Gomes | DF |
| 33 | G. Konan | DF |
| 5 | M. Munetsi | MF |
| 7 | Andre | MF |
| 27 | J. Bellegarde | MF |
| 28 | Fer Lopez | MF |
| 19 | R. Said | MF |
| 14 | S. Neave | FW |
| 2 | K. Trippier | DF |
| 15 | Y. Mosquera | DF |
| 13 | Joao Virginia | GK |
| 36 | M. Mane | FW |
| 37 | L. Krejci | DF |
| 8 | J. James | MF |
| 20 | T. Doyle | MF |
| 23 | T. Chirewa | FW |
| 3 | Hugo Bueno | DF |
Burnley vs Wolves injury report and team news
Burnley- E. AgyeiOut · Muscle Injury
- A. AhmedhodzicOut · Knock
- A. BarnesOut · Muscle Injury
- J. BeyerOut · Hamstring Injury
- B. HumphreysOut · Muscle Injury
- H. MejbriOut · Hamstring Injury
- A. RamseyOut · Hamstring Injury
- Z. AmdouniDoubtful · Ankle Injury
- J. BanelDoubtful · Muscle Injury
- J. CullenDoubtful · Knee Injury
Wolves- A. ArmstrongOut · Back Injury
- R. JimenezOut · Knee Injury
- Y. MosqueraOut · Ankle Injury
- B. TraoreOut · Injury
- R. GomesDoubtful · Foot Injury
- M. JiDoubtful · Injury
Burnley vs Wolves team form
BurnleyDWDLD| 13/10/2026 | Charlton (home) | 2–2 |
| 10/10/2026 | Watford (away) | 4–0 |
| 19/09/2026 | Derby (home) | 1–1 |
| 12/09/2026 | Swansea (away) | 1–3 |
| 08/09/2026 | Wrexham (away) | 1–1 |
WolvesLLWLW| 13/10/2026 | Bolton (home) | 1–3 |
| 10/10/2026 | Middlesbrough (away) | 0–1 |
| 20/09/2026 | West Brom (home) | 1–0 |
| 16/09/2026 | Everton (away) | 0–1 |
| 13/09/2026 | Sheffield Utd (away) | 1–0 |
Burnley vs Wolves head to head (H2H)
Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Burnley won 4, drew 3, lost 3. Burnley scored 12 and conceded 11 goals.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2026 | Burnley | 1–1 | Wolves |
| 26/10/2025 | Wolves | 2–3 | Burnley |
| 28/08/2024 | Wolves | 2–0 | Burnley |
| 02/04/2024 | Burnley | 1–1 | Wolves |
| 05/12/2023 | Wolves | 1–0 | Burnley |
| 09/07/2022 | Wolves | 3–0 | Burnley |
| 24/04/2022 | Burnley | 1–0 | Wolves |
| 01/12/2021 | Wolves | 0–0 | Burnley |
| 25/04/2021 | Wolves | 0–4 | Burnley |
| 21/12/2020 | Burnley | 2–1 | Wolves |
Match information
- Referee
- Lewis Smith
- Venue
- Turf Moor, Burnley
- Round
- 11
Other matches on 17/10 (GMT+7)
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Koln01:30 · Bundesliga1–0
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo01:45 · Serie A4–2
- Le Mans vs Toulouse01:45 · Ligue 10–3
- Deportivo vs Levante02:00 · La Liga1–1
- Everton vs Chelsea18:30 · Premier League30% / 27% / 43%
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid19:00 · La Liga19% / 25% / 57%
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.