Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Cagliari
46%
Draw
32%
Lecce
23%
Actual result: Cagliari 1 – 0 Lecce · Cagliari winJarvis gave this outcome: 46% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Cagliari, negative favours Lecce) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Cagliari - Lecce)+0.46
Expected total goals2.21
Expected goals Cagliari / Lecce1.33 / 0.87
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.7% / 55.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 66.5%
Over 2.5 goals 37.9%
Over 3.5 goals 18.2%
First half
First-half result (Cagliari / draw / Lecce)32.5% / 48.9% / 18.6%
A goal in the first half61.7%
Two or more in the first half27.4%
Half-time then full-time
Cagliari lead at half-time then Cagliari win27.4%
Level at half-time then draw21.6%
Level at half-time then Cagliari win17.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Cagliari's side
Cagliari −2.015.2%
Cagliari −1.7518.8%
Cagliari −1.522.3%
Cagliari −1.2528.1%
Cagliari −1.033.9%
Cagliari −0.7539.7%
Cagliari −0.545.5%
Cagliari −0.2553.5%
Cagliari draw no bet (0.0)61.4%
Cagliari +0.2569.4%
Cagliari +0.577.3%
Cagliari +0.7581.0%
Cagliari +1.084.6%
Cagliari +1.591.9%
Cagliari +2.094.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Cagliari win2.20
Draw3.14
Lecce win4.41
Over 2.52.64
Under 2.51.61
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Cagliari wins by more than 1 goals22%
Lecce wins by more than 1 goals8%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%