Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Elche
27%
Draw
29%
Real Sociedad
45%
Actual result: Elche 2 – 3 Real Sociedad · Real Sociedad winJarvis gave this outcome: 45% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Elche, negative favours Real Sociedad) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Elche - Real Sociedad)-0.41
Expected total goals2.77
Expected goals Elche / Real Sociedad1.18 / 1.59
Both teams to score (yes / no)57.0% / 43.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.2%
Over 2.5 goals 52.3%
Over 3.5 goals 30.1%
First half
First-half result (Elche / draw / Real Sociedad)22.2% / 44.2% / 33.7%
A goal in the first half69.5%
Two or more in the first half37.1%
Half-time then full-time
Real Sociedad lead at half-time then Real Sociedad win27.6%
Level at half-time then draw17.6%
Level at half-time then Real Sociedad win16.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Elche's side
Elche −2.07.5%
Elche −1.759.5%
Elche −1.511.4%
Elche −1.2515.2%
Elche −1.019.0%
Elche −0.7522.7%
Elche −0.526.5%
Elche −0.2533.6%
Elche draw no bet (0.0)40.8%
Elche +0.2547.9%
Elche +0.555.0%
Elche +0.7560.2%
Elche +1.065.5%
Elche +1.575.9%
Elche +2.083.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Elche win3.77
Draw3.51
Real Sociedad win2.22
Over 2.51.91
Under 2.52.10
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Elche wins by more than 1 goals11%
Real Sociedad wins by more than 1 goals24%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards4.0
2.5+ cards in the match58%