Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Getafe
32%
Draw
39%
Celta Vigo
29%
Actual result: Getafe 1 – 1 Celta Vigo · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 39% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Getafe, negative favours Celta Vigo) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Getafe - Celta Vigo)+0.05
Expected total goals1.68
Expected goals Getafe / Celta Vigo0.86 / 0.81
Both teams to score (yes / no)34.5% / 65.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 52.2%
Over 2.5 goals 23.7%
Over 3.5 goals 9.0%
First half
First-half result (Getafe / draw / Celta Vigo)22.7% / 56.2% / 21.0%
A goal in the first half51.8%
Two or more in the first half18.7%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw29.0%
Getafe lead at half-time then Getafe win18.3%
Celta Vigo lead at half-time then Celta Vigo win16.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Getafe's side
Getafe −2.07.4%
Getafe −1.759.6%
Getafe −1.511.8%
Getafe −1.2516.8%
Getafe −1.021.9%
Getafe −0.7527.0%
Getafe −0.532.1%
Getafe −0.2541.8%
Getafe draw no bet (0.0)51.5%
Getafe +0.2561.2%
Getafe +0.570.9%
Getafe +0.7575.6%
Getafe +1.080.3%
Getafe +1.589.8%
Getafe +2.093.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Getafe win3.12
Draw2.58
Celta Vigo win3.43
Over 2.54.22
Under 2.51.31
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Getafe wins by more than 1 goals12%
Celta Vigo wins by more than 1 goals10%
Corners
Expected total corners8.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match40%