Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Udinese
34%
Draw
33%
Lazio
33%
Actual result: Udinese 1 – 2 Lazio · Lazio winJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Udinese, negative favours Lazio) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Udinese - Lazio)+0.02
Expected total goals2.30
Expected goals Udinese / Lazio1.16 / 1.14
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.1% / 50.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 69.3%
Over 2.5 goals 40.5%
Over 3.5 goals 20.1%
First half
First-half result (Udinese / draw / Lazio)25.9% / 49.0% / 25.1%
A goal in the first half62.9%
Two or more in the first half29.4%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw21.8%
Udinese lead at half-time then Udinese win20.1%
Lazio lead at half-time then Lazio win19.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Udinese's side
Udinese −2.010.0%
Udinese −1.7512.6%
Udinese −1.515.2%
Udinese −1.2519.9%
Udinese −1.024.6%
Udinese −0.7529.4%
Udinese −0.534.1%
Udinese −0.2542.4%
Udinese draw no bet (0.0)50.6%
Udinese +0.2558.8%
Udinese +0.567.1%
Udinese +0.7571.7%
Udinese +1.076.3%
Udinese +1.585.6%
Udinese +2.090.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Udinese win2.93
Draw3.03
Lazio win3.04
Over 2.52.47
Under 2.51.68
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Udinese wins by more than 1 goals15%
Lazio wins by more than 1 goals14%
Corners
Expected total corners9.1
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards3.3
2.5+ cards in the match43%