English Football League Cup

Cardiff vs Norwich prediction

1 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Cardiff vs Norwich (English Football League Cup), 26/08/2026, finished 1-2: Norwich won. Before the match Jarvis gave Cardiff 36%, the draw 26% and Norwich 38%; the actual result had a 38% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.1.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Cardiff

36%

Draw

26%

Norwich

38%

Actual result: Cardiff 1 – 2 Norwich · Norwich winJarvis gave this outcome: 38% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Cardiff, negative favours Norwich) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Cardiff - Norwich)-0.05

Expected total goals3.09

Expected goals Cardiff / Norwich1.52 / 1.57

Both teams to score (yes / no)62.9% / 37.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 82.5%

Over 2.5 goals 59.7%

Over 3.5 goals 37.3%

First half

First-half result (Cardiff / draw / Norwich)29.0% / 40.8% / 30.3%

A goal in the first half74.0%

Two or more in the first half41.7%

Half-time then full-time

Norwich lead at half-time then Norwich win22.9%

Cardiff lead at half-time then Cardiff win21.5%

Level at half-time then draw14.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Cardiff's side

Cardiff −2.012.4%

Cardiff −1.7515.1%

Cardiff −1.517.8%

Cardiff −1.2522.4%

Cardiff −1.026.9%

Cardiff −0.7531.4%

Cardiff −0.536.0%

Cardiff −0.2542.5%

Cardiff draw no bet (0.0)49.0%

Cardiff +0.2555.5%

Cardiff +0.561.9%

Cardiff +0.7566.6%

Cardiff +1.071.3%

Cardiff +1.580.7%

Cardiff +2.086.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Cardiff win2.78

Draw3.85

Norwich win2.63

Over 2.51.68

Under 2.52.48

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Cardiff wins by more than 1 goals18%

Norwich wins by more than 1 goals19%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 26/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.