Brazilian Serie A

Coritiba vs SE Palmeiras prediction

1 – 3

Full-time

Match summary

Coritiba vs SE Palmeiras (Serie A), 23/07/2026, finished 1-3: SE Palmeiras won. Before the match Jarvis gave Coritiba 23%, the draw 32% and SE Palmeiras 45%; the actual result had a 45% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-1. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 2.2.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Coritiba

23%

Draw

32%

SE Palmeiras

45%

Actual result: Coritiba 1 – 3 SE Palmeiras · SE Palmeiras winJarvis gave this outcome: 45% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Coritiba, negative favours SE Palmeiras) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Coritiba - SE Palmeiras)-0.43

Expected total goals2.18

Expected goals Coritiba / SE Palmeiras0.88 / 1.31

Both teams to score (yes / no)44.3% / 55.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 65.8%

Over 2.5 goals 37.3%

Over 3.5 goals 17.7%

First half

First-half result (Coritiba / draw / SE Palmeiras)19.1% / 48.9% / 32.1%

A goal in the first half61.4%

Two or more in the first half26.9%

Half-time then full-time

SE Palmeiras lead at half-time then SE Palmeiras win26.9%

Level at half-time then draw21.6%

Level at half-time then SE Palmeiras win17.3%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Coritiba's side

Coritiba −2.05.2%

Coritiba −1.756.8%

Coritiba −1.58.4%

Coritiba −1.2512.1%

Coritiba −1.015.9%

Coritiba −0.7519.7%

Coritiba −0.523.4%

Coritiba −0.2531.4%

Coritiba draw no bet (0.0)39.3%

Coritiba +0.2547.2%

Coritiba +0.555.2%

Coritiba +0.7561.0%

Coritiba +1.066.8%

Coritiba +1.578.4%

Coritiba +2.085.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Coritiba win4.27

Draw3.15

SE Palmeiras win2.23

Over 2.52.68

Under 2.51.59

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Coritiba wins by more than 1 goals8%

SE Palmeiras wins by more than 1 goals22%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 23/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.