Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Germany
63%
Draw
20%
Ivory Coast
16%
Actual result: Germany 2 – 1 Ivory Coast · Germany winJarvis gave this outcome: 63% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Germany, negative favours Ivory Coast) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Germany - Ivory Coast)+1.03
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Germany / Ivory Coast1.76 / 0.74
Both teams to score (yes / no)42.0% / 58.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.0%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Germany / draw / Ivory Coast)45.0% / 39.6% / 15.4%
A goal in the first half68.5%
Two or more in the first half30.0%
Half-time then full-time
Germany lead at half-time then Germany win39.7%
Level at half-time then Germany win19.7%
Level at half-time then draw13.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Germany's side
Germany −2.026.1%
Germany −1.7531.0%
Germany −1.535.8%
Germany −1.2542.6%
Germany −1.049.5%
Germany −0.7556.3%
Germany −0.563.2%
Germany −0.2568.3%
Germany draw no bet (0.0)73.4%
Germany +0.2578.5%
Germany +0.583.6%
Germany +0.7586.6%
Germany +1.089.6%
Germany +1.595.7%
Germany +2.097.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Germany win1.58
Draw4.90
Ivory Coast win6.09
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
15.7%
2–0
12.8%
1–1
9.4%
2–1
9.4%
3–0
7.5%
0–1
7.3%
Goal margin
Germany wins by more than 1 goals36%
Ivory Coast wins by more than 1 goals4%