Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Netherlands
55%
Draw
24%
Sweden
21%
Actual result: Netherlands 5 – 1 Sweden · Netherlands winJarvis gave this outcome: 55% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Netherlands, negative favours Sweden) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Netherlands - Sweden)+0.74
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Netherlands / Sweden1.62 / 0.88
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.7% / 53.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.0%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Netherlands / draw / Sweden)39.6% / 42.1% / 18.2%
A goal in the first half67.7%
Two or more in the first half30.8%
Half-time then full-time
Netherlands lead at half-time then Netherlands win33.9%
Level at half-time then Netherlands win18.4%
Level at half-time then draw15.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Netherlands's side
Netherlands −2.021.0%
Netherlands −1.7525.3%
Netherlands −1.529.5%
Netherlands −1.2535.9%
Netherlands −1.042.3%
Netherlands −0.7548.7%
Netherlands −0.555.0%
Netherlands −0.2561.1%
Netherlands draw no bet (0.0)67.2%
Netherlands +0.2573.3%
Netherlands +0.579.3%
Netherlands +0.7582.9%
Netherlands +1.086.4%
Netherlands +1.593.4%
Netherlands +2.095.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Netherlands win1.82
Draw4.11
Sweden win4.84
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
13.5%
1–1
11.5%
2–0
10.8%
2–1
9.5%
0–0
8.0%
0–1
7.5%
Goal margin
Netherlands wins by more than 1 goals29%
Sweden wins by more than 1 goals7%