US MLS

FC Cincinnati vs New York City prediction

2 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

FC Cincinnati vs New York City (US MLS), 20/08/2026, finished 2-1: FC Cincinnati won. Before the match Jarvis gave FC Cincinnati 51%, the draw 24% and New York City 25%; the actual result had a 51% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.3.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

FC Cincinnati

51%

Draw

24%

New York City

25%

Actual result: FC Cincinnati 2 – 1 New York City · FC Cincinnati winJarvis gave this outcome: 51% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours FC Cincinnati, negative favours New York City) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (FC Cincinnati - New York City)+0.62

Expected total goals3.28

Expected goals FC Cincinnati / New York City1.95 / 1.33

Both teams to score (yes / no)64.2% / 35.8%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 85.1%

Over 2.5 goals 63.6%

Over 3.5 goals 41.4%

First half

First-half result (FC Cincinnati / draw / New York City)38.4% / 39.5% / 22.0%

A goal in the first half75.6%

Two or more in the first half44.8%

Half-time then full-time

FC Cincinnati lead at half-time then FC Cincinnati win32.0%

Level at half-time then FC Cincinnati win16.4%

New York City lead at half-time then New York City win14.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from FC Cincinnati's side

FC Cincinnati −2.022.0%

FC Cincinnati −1.7526.0%

FC Cincinnati −1.529.9%

FC Cincinnati −1.2535.1%

FC Cincinnati −1.040.3%

FC Cincinnati −0.7545.5%

FC Cincinnati −0.550.7%

FC Cincinnati −0.2556.8%

FC Cincinnati draw no bet (0.0)62.9%

FC Cincinnati +0.2569.0%

FC Cincinnati +0.575.1%

FC Cincinnati +0.7578.6%

FC Cincinnati +1.082.0%

FC Cincinnati +1.588.9%

FC Cincinnati +2.092.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

FC Cincinnati win1.97

Draw4.09

New York City win4.02

Over 2.51.57

Under 2.52.75

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

FC Cincinnati wins by more than 1 goals30%

New York City wins by more than 1 goals11%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 20/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.