Brazilian Serie A

Fluminense vs SE Palmeiras prediction

3 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Fluminense vs SE Palmeiras (Serie A), 16/08/2026, finished 3-2: Fluminense won. Before the match Jarvis gave Fluminense 31%, the draw 32% and SE Palmeiras 37%; the actual result had a 31% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 5 goals; Jarvis expected 2.3.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Fluminense

31%

Draw

32%

SE Palmeiras

37%

Actual result: Fluminense 3 – 2 SE Palmeiras · Fluminense winJarvis gave this outcome: 31%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Fluminense, negative favours SE Palmeiras) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Fluminense - SE Palmeiras)-0.11

Expected total goals2.30

Expected goals Fluminense / SE Palmeiras1.09 / 1.21

Both teams to score (yes / no)48.5% / 51.5%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 68.8%

Over 2.5 goals 40.4%

Over 3.5 goals 20.1%

First half

First-half result (Fluminense / draw / SE Palmeiras)24.1% / 48.4% / 27.5%

A goal in the first half63.1%

Two or more in the first half29.1%

Half-time then full-time

SE Palmeiras lead at half-time then SE Palmeiras win21.7%

Level at half-time then draw21.2%

Fluminense lead at half-time then Fluminense win18.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Fluminense's side

Fluminense −2.08.5%

Fluminense −1.7510.8%

Fluminense −1.513.1%

Fluminense −1.2517.6%

Fluminense −1.022.1%

Fluminense −0.7526.6%

Fluminense −0.531.1%

Fluminense −0.2539.1%

Fluminense draw no bet (0.0)47.2%

Fluminense +0.2555.2%

Fluminense +0.563.2%

Fluminense +0.7568.3%

Fluminense +1.073.3%

Fluminense +1.583.4%

Fluminense +2.088.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Fluminense win3.21

Draw3.12

SE Palmeiras win2.72

Over 2.52.48

Under 2.51.68

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Fluminense wins by more than 1 goals13%

SE Palmeiras wins by more than 1 goals17%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 16/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.