FIFA World Cup
Turkey vs Paraguay prediction
Turkey
0 – 1
Full-time
Paraguay
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Turkey
47%
Draw
28%
Paraguay
25%
Actual result: Turkey 0 – 1 Paraguay · Paraguay winJarvis gave this outcome: 25%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Turkey, negative favours Paraguay) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Turkey - Paraguay)+0.48
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Turkey / Paraguay1.49 / 1.01
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.4% / 49.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.4%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Turkey / draw / Paraguay)34.4% / 45.0% / 20.5%
A goal in the first half66.6%
Two or more in the first half32.0%
Half-time then full-time
Turkey ahead then Turkey win28.7%
level then draw18.2%
level then Turkey win17.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Turkey
Turkey give 2 trái (−2.0)16.9%
Turkey give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)20.5%
Turkey give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)24.2%
Turkey give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)29.9%
Turkey give 1 trái (−1.0)35.6%
Turkey give 3/4 trái (−0.75)41.3%
Turkey give nửa trái (−0.5)47.1%
Turkey give 1/4 trái (−0.25)54.2%
Level ball (0.0)61.3%
Turkey receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)68.4%
Turkey receive nửa trái (+0.5)75.5%
Turkey receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)79.3%
Turkey receive 1 trái (+1.0)83.1%
Turkey receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)90.6%
Turkey receive 2 trái (+2.0)94.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Turkey win2.12
Draw3.52
Paraguay win4.08
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
13.5%
1–0
11.0%
0–0
9.4%
2–1
9.2%
2–0
9.1%
0–1
7.1%
Goal margin
Turkey wins by more than 1 goals24%
Paraguay wins by more than 1 goals9%