Match summary
Heerenveen vs Excelsior (Dutch Eredivisie), 17/10/2026, finished 4-0: Heerenveen won. Before the match Jarvis gave Heerenveen 61%, the draw 22% and Excelsior 18%; the actual result had a 61% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 3.4.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Heerenveen
61%
Draw
22%
Excelsior
18%
Actual result: Heerenveen 4 – 0 Excelsior · Heerenveen winJarvis gave this outcome: 61% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Heerenveen, negative favours Excelsior) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Heerenveen - Excelsior)+1.08
Expected total goals3.44
Expected goals Heerenveen / Excelsior2.26 / 1.18
Both teams to score (yes / no)63.1% / 36.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.8%
Over 2.5 goals 66.7%
Over 3.5 goals 45.0%
First half
First-half result (Heerenveen / draw / Excelsior)45.2% / 37.4% / 17.4%
A goal in the first half77.2%
Two or more in the first half47.2%
Half-time then full-time
Heerenveen lead at half-time then Heerenveen win39.7%
Level at half-time then Heerenveen win18.3%
Level at half-time then draw12.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Heerenveen's side
Heerenveen −2.030.2%
Heerenveen −1.7534.8%
Heerenveen −1.539.4%
Heerenveen −1.2544.7%
Heerenveen −1.050.0%
Heerenveen −0.7555.3%
Heerenveen −0.560.6%
Heerenveen −0.2566.0%
Heerenveen draw no bet (0.0)71.4%
Heerenveen +0.2576.8%
Heerenveen +0.582.2%
Heerenveen +0.7584.9%
Heerenveen +1.087.5%
Heerenveen +1.592.8%
Heerenveen +2.095.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Heerenveen win1.65
Draw4.61
Excelsior win5.63
Over 2.51.50
Under 2.53.01
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Heerenveen wins by more than 1 goals39%
Excelsior wins by more than 1 goals7%
Probability trajectory · full match
Match events
- 11′Goal (Penalty)Dylan Vente
- 43′Yellow cardAgust Orri Thorsteinsson
- 45′SubstitutionMario Dominguez Franco on, David Garden off
- 54′GoalOliver Johansen Braude (assist: Jacob Trenskow)
- 66′SubstitutionIlano Silva Timas on, Agust Orri Thorsteinsson off
- 66′SubstitutionValentin Sulzbacher on, Aymen sliti off
- 66′SubstitutionOsman Turay on, Simon Janssen off
- 73′SubstitutionMarko Farji on, Maxence Rivera off
- 77′SubstitutionNoah Naujoks on, Eric da Silva Moreira off
- 82′SubstitutionLuca Oyen on, Nolhan courtens off
- 82′SubstitutionRingo Meerveld on, Levi Smans off
- 82′SubstitutionRoberts Uldrikis on, Dylan Vente off
- 84′GoalLuca Oyen (assist: Ringo Meerveld)
- 86′SubstitutionHristiyan Petrov on, Maas Willemsen off
- 88′GoalJacob Trenskow
Match statistics
HeerenveenExcelsior
52Possession48
2.33Expected goals (xG)0.73
14Total shots5
7Shots on target1
4Corners1
9Fouls10
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
3Offsides0
1Saves3
86Pass accuracy (%)81
Player ratings
| 9.0 | J. Trenskow · Heerenveen | 1 goal 1 assist |
| 8.6 | O. Braude · Heerenveen | 1 goal |
| 7.7 | M. Willemsen · Heerenveen | |
| 7.4 | S. Kersten · Heerenveen | |
| 7.3 | V. Zagaritis · Heerenveen | |
| 7.1 | L. Smans · Heerenveen |
Heerenveen vs Excelsior lineups
HeerenveenFormation 4-2-3-1Coach: R. Veldeman
| 1 | B. Klaverboer | GK |
| 45 | O. Braude | DF |
| 4 | S. Kersten | DF |
| 3 | M. Willemsen | DF |
| 19 | V. Zagaritis | DF |
| 16 | M. Linday | MF |
| 8 | N. Courtens | MF |
| 20 | J. Trenskow | MF |
| 14 | L. Smans | MF |
| 7 | M. Rivera | MF |
| 9 | D. Vente | FW |
| 23 | D. Bladi | DF |
| 49 | Anass Bouziane | MF |
| 21 | M. Farji | FW |
| 2 | M. Hilgers | DF |
| 28 | H. Petrov | DF |
| 29 | L. Machine | FW |
| 10 | R. Meerveld | MF |
| 15 | M. Egbring | DF |
| 44 | A. Noppert | GK |
| 11 | L. Oyen | FW |
| 30 | T. Schreuder | GK |
| 17 | R. Uldrikis | FW |
ExcelsiorFormation 4-3-3Coach: R. den Uil
| 1 | S. van Gassel | GK |
| 2 | Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira | DF |
| 4 | C. Widell | DF |
| 14 | J. Plug | DF |
| 15 | S. Janssen | DF |
| 8 | I. Yegoian | MF |
| 3 | R. Meissen | MF |
| 20 | L. Hartjes | MF |
| 7 | A. Sliti | FW |
| 19 | D. Garden | FW |
| 30 | A. Thorsteinsson | FW |
| 6 | D. van Vianen | MF |
| 22 | O. Turay | DF |
| 18 | V. Sulzbacher | MF |
| 21 | I. Silva Timas | FW |
| 10 | N. Naujoks | MF |
| 11 | A. Jahanbakhsh | FW |
| 28 | N. Groen | FW |
| 9 | Mario Dominguez | FW |
| 24 | Giulliano Cairo | MF |
| 16 | Celton Biai | GK |
Heerenveen vs Excelsior injury report and team news
Heerenveen- D. ProperOut · Hamstring Injury
Excelsior- N. NaujoksDoubtful · Injury
Heerenveen vs Excelsior team form
HeerenveenLWDLD| 09/10/2026 | PSV Eindhoven (away) | 0–2 |
| 19/09/2026 | Sparta Rotterdam (away) | 4–0 |
| 13/09/2026 | Telstar (home) | 0–0 |
| 06/09/2026 | AZ Alkmaar (home) | 2–3 |
| 30/08/2026 | Willem II (away) | 2–2 |
ExcelsiorLDLDW| 11/10/2026 | Groningen (home) | 1–5 |
| 19/09/2026 | Ajax (away) | 2–2 |
| 13/09/2026 | Utrecht (home) | 1–2 |
| 08/09/2026 | NEC Nijmegen (away) | 2–2 |
| 05/09/2026 | Willem II (away) | 3–0 |
Heerenveen vs Excelsior head to head (H2H)
Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Heerenveen won 6, drew 2, lost 2. Heerenveen scored 15 and conceded 12 goals.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2026 | Excelsior | 1–2 | Heerenveen |
| 04/10/2025 | Heerenveen | 2–1 | Excelsior |
| 19/01/2024 | Excelsior | 3–0 | Heerenveen |
| 23/09/2023 | Heerenveen | 0–3 | Excelsior |
| 13/05/2023 | Heerenveen | 0–0 | Excelsior |
| 05/11/2022 | Excelsior | 0–1 | Heerenveen |
| 30/07/2022 | Heerenveen | 3–1 | Excelsior |
| 30/10/2019 | Excelsior | 0–3 | Heerenveen |
| 30/03/2019 | Heerenveen | 1–0 | Excelsior |
| 22/09/2018 | Excelsior | 3–3 | Heerenveen |
Match information
- Referee
- Robin Hensgens
- Venue
- Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
- Round
- 9
Other matches on 17/10 (GMT+7)
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Koln01:30 · Bundesliga1–0
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo01:45 · Serie A4–2
- Le Mans vs Toulouse01:45 · Ligue 10–3
- Deportivo vs Levante02:00 · La Liga1–1
- Everton vs Chelsea18:30 · Premier League30% / 27% / 43%
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid19:00 · La Liga19% / 25% / 57%
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.