Match summary
Lech Poznan vs Thun (Europa League), 21/08/2026, finished 7-0: Lech Poznan won.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Lech Poznan
66%
Draw
20%
Thun
15%
Actual result: Lech Poznan 7 – 0 Thun · Lech Poznan winJarvis gave this outcome: 66% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lech Poznan, negative favours Thun) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lech Poznan - Thun)+1.27
Expected total goals3.22
Expected goals Lech Poznan / Thun2.24 / 0.98
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.2% / 43.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.5%
Over 2.5 goals 62.5%
Over 3.5 goals 40.3%
First half
First-half result (Lech Poznan / draw / Thun)48.7% / 35.9% / 15.5%
A goal in the first half76.2%
Two or more in the first half43.0%
Half-time then full-time
Lech Poznan lead at half-time then Lech Poznan win43.6%
Level at half-time then Lech Poznan win19.1%
Level at half-time then draw11.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lech Poznan's side
Lech Poznan −2.033.0%
Lech Poznan −1.7537.9%
Lech Poznan −1.542.9%
Lech Poznan −1.2548.6%
Lech Poznan −1.054.3%
Lech Poznan −0.7559.9%
Lech Poznan −0.565.6%
Lech Poznan −0.2570.5%
Lech Poznan draw no bet (0.0)75.4%
Lech Poznan +0.2580.3%
Lech Poznan +0.585.2%
Lech Poznan +0.7587.6%
Lech Poznan +1.090.0%
Lech Poznan +1.594.9%
Lech Poznan +2.096.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lech Poznan win1.52
Draw5.12
Thun win6.75
Over 2.51.60
Under 2.52.67
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lech Poznan wins by more than 1 goals43%
Thun wins by more than 1 goals5%
Probability trajectory · full match
Next fixtures of both teams
- vs SunderlandThu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
- vs Benfica (away)Fri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
Other matches on 21/08 (GMT+7)
- Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves02:00 · La Liga1–1
- Trabzonspor vs Ferencvaros00:00 · Europa League0–1
- Besiktas vs FK Kauno Zalgiris00:00 · Europa League3–0
- Egnatia Rrogozhine vs Lillestrom00:00 · Europa League0–0
- Crvena Zvezda vs Plzen01:00 · Europa League3–0
- Benfica vs AGF02:00 · Europa League3–1
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.
Europa League table, latest
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 2 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | +6 | 6 |
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| ... | ||||
| 35 | NK Celje | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Lech Poznan | 2 | -8 | 0 |