French Super Cup

Lens vs Paris St-G prediction

1 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Lens vs Paris St-G (French Super Cup), 17/08/2026, finished 1-0: Lens won. Before the match Jarvis gave Lens 18%, the draw 23% and Paris St-G 60%; the actual result had a 18% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 3.2. Last 10 meetings: Lens won 1, 2 drawn, Paris St-G won 7.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Lens

18%

Draw

23%

Paris St-G

60%

Actual result: Lens 1 – 0 Paris St-G · Lens winJarvis gave this outcome: 18%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lens, negative favours Paris St-G) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Lens - Paris St-G)-1.02

Expected total goals3.18

Expected goals Lens / Paris St-G1.08 / 2.10

Both teams to score (yes / no)59.2% / 40.8%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 83.8%

Over 2.5 goals 61.6%

Over 3.5 goals 39.3%

First half

First-half result (Lens / draw / Paris St-G)17.0% / 39.0% / 44.0%

A goal in the first half74.7%

Two or more in the first half43.3%

Half-time then full-time

Paris St-G lead at half-time then Paris St-G win38.7%

Level at half-time then Paris St-G win18.7%

Level at half-time then draw13.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Lens's side

Lens −2.04.4%

Lens −1.755.6%

Lens −1.56.8%

Lens −1.259.5%

Lens −1.012.2%

Lens −0.7514.9%

Lens −0.517.6%

Lens −0.2523.3%

Lens draw no bet (0.0)29.0%

Lens +0.2534.7%

Lens +0.540.5%

Lens +0.7545.9%

Lens +1.051.4%

Lens +1.562.4%

Lens +2.071.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Lens win5.70

Draw4.37

Paris St-G win1.68

Over 2.51.62

Under 2.52.61

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Lens wins by more than 1 goals7%

Paris St-G wins by more than 1 goals38%

Corners

Expected total corners9.7

6.5+ corners in the match50%

Cards

Expected total cards2.2

2.5+ cards in the match38%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Lens

vs Club Brugge (away)Thu 22/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
vs Paris FCSun 25/10, 01:45 GMT+7 · Ligue 1 26-27

Paris St-G

vs BarcelonaWed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 39% / 22% / 39%
vs LyonMon 26/10, 02:45 GMT+7 · Ligue 1 26-27

Other matches on 17/08 (GMT+7)

Espanyol vs Levante00:00 · La Liga3–0

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.