Spanish La Liga

Malaga vs Deportivo prediction

1 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Malaga vs Deportivo (La Liga), 25/08/2026, finished 1-1: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Malaga 40%, the draw 33% and Deportivo 27%; the actual result had a 33% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.2.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Malaga

40%

Draw

33%

Deportivo

27%

Actual result: Malaga 1 – 1 Deportivo · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 33%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Malaga, negative favours Deportivo) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Malaga - Deportivo)+0.25

Expected total goals2.22

Expected goals Malaga / Deportivo1.23 / 0.98

Both teams to score (yes / no)46.5% / 53.5%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 67.1%

Over 2.5 goals 38.2%

Over 3.5 goals 18.4%

First half

First-half result (Malaga / draw / Deportivo)29.0% / 49.5% / 21.5%

A goal in the first half61.6%

Two or more in the first half27.8%

Half-time then full-time

Malaga lead at half-time then Malaga win23.6%

Level at half-time then draw22.3%

Level at half-time then Malaga win15.7%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Malaga's side

Malaga −2.012.4%

Malaga −1.7515.4%

Malaga −1.518.4%

Malaga −1.2523.7%

Malaga −1.029.1%

Malaga −0.7534.4%

Malaga −0.539.7%

Malaga −0.2547.9%

Malaga draw no bet (0.0)56.2%

Malaga +0.2564.5%

Malaga +0.572.7%

Malaga +0.7576.8%

Malaga +1.081.0%

Malaga +1.589.2%

Malaga +2.093.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Malaga win2.52

Draw3.03

Deportivo win3.66

Over 2.52.62

Under 2.51.62

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Malaga wins by more than 1 goals18%

Deportivo wins by more than 1 goals11%

Corners

Expected total corners9.0

6.5+ corners in the match54%

Cards

Expected total cards3.0

2.5+ cards in the match57%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Malaga

vs Real SociedadSun 18/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
vs Alaves (away)Sat 24/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27

Deportivo

vs Atletico Madrid (away)Sun 25/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
vs OsasunaTue 03/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27

Other matches on 25/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

La Liga table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	+27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	+10	19
3	Real Betis	8	+5	19
...
7	Alaves	8	+4	11
8	Deportivo	9	+1	11
9	Celta Vigo	8	+2	8
...
19	Valencia	8	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	-9	4

See the full La Liga table