Italian Serie A

Roma vs Fiorentina prediction

4 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Roma vs Fiorentina (Serie A), 25/08/2026, finished 4-0: Roma won. Before the match Jarvis gave Roma 56%, the draw 26% and Fiorentina 18%; the actual result had a 56% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 2.6.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Roma

56%

Draw

26%

Fiorentina

18%

Actual result: Roma 4 – 0 Fiorentina · Roma winJarvis gave this outcome: 56% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Roma, negative favours Fiorentina) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Roma - Fiorentina)+0.84

Expected total goals2.60

Expected goals Roma / Fiorentina1.72 / 0.88

Both teams to score (yes / no)49.3% / 50.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 74.4%

Over 2.5 goals 48.3%

Over 3.5 goals 26.5%

First half

First-half result (Roma / draw / Fiorentina)40.4% / 43.1% / 16.5%

A goal in the first half68.1%

Two or more in the first half33.6%

Half-time then full-time

Roma lead at half-time then Roma win35.3%

Level at half-time then Roma win19.1%

Level at half-time then draw16.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Roma's side

Roma −2.023.2%

Roma −1.7527.6%

Roma −1.532.0%

Roma −1.2538.0%

Roma −1.044.0%

Roma −0.7550.1%

Roma −0.556.1%

Roma −0.2562.6%

Roma draw no bet (0.0)69.0%

Roma +0.2575.5%

Roma +0.581.9%

Roma +0.7584.9%

Roma +1.087.9%

Roma +1.593.8%

Roma +2.096.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Roma win1.78

Draw3.87

Fiorentina win5.54

Over 2.52.07

Under 2.51.93

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Roma wins by more than 1 goals32%

Fiorentina wins by more than 1 goals6%

Corners

Expected total corners9.0

6.5+ corners in the match54%

Cards

Expected total cards3.4

2.5+ cards in the match44%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Roma

vs GenoaSun 18/10, 01:45 GMT+7 · Serie A 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 61% / 24% / 15%
vs Slovan BratislavaWed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27

Fiorentina

vs ComoSun 18/10, 20:00 GMT+7 · Serie A 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 27% / 27% / 46%
vs Internazionale (away)Sun 25/10, 18:30 GMT+7 · Serie A 26-27

Other matches on 25/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Serie A table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Internazionale	6	+10	16
2	Lazio	6	+7	16
3	AS Roma	6	+11	14
4	Cagliari	6	+3	13
...
18	Parma	6	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	-7	4
20	Venezia	7	-10	3

See the full Serie A table