UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers

Panathinaikos vs CSKA 1948 Sofia prediction

1 – 1

Full-time

CSKA 1948 Sofia

Match summary

Panathinaikos vs CSKA 1948 Sofia (UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers), 06/08/2026, finished 1-1: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Panathinaikos 79%, the draw 14% and CSKA 1948 Sofia 6%; the actual result had a 14% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Panathinaikos

79%

Draw

14%

CSKA 1948 Sofia

Actual result: Panathinaikos 1 – 1 CSKA 1948 Sofia · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 14%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Panathinaikos, negative favours CSKA 1948 Sofia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Panathinaikos - CSKA 1948 Sofia)+1.82

Expected total goals2.76

Expected goals Panathinaikos / CSKA 1948 Sofia2.29 / 0.47

Both teams to score (yes / no)33.3% / 66.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 75.8%

Over 2.5 goals 52.2%

Over 3.5 goals 30.0%

First half

First-half result (Panathinaikos / draw / CSKA 1948 Sofia)57.3% / 34.7% / 7.9%

A goal in the first half71.5%

Two or more in the first half34.9%

Half-time then full-time

Panathinaikos lead at half-time then Panathinaikos win54.5%

Level at half-time then Panathinaikos win22.0%

Level at half-time then draw10.0%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Panathinaikos's side

Panathinaikos −2.043.3%

Panathinaikos −1.7549.1%

Panathinaikos −1.555.0%

Panathinaikos −1.2561.0%

Panathinaikos −1.067.1%

Panathinaikos −0.7573.1%

Panathinaikos −0.579.2%

Panathinaikos −0.2582.8%

Panathinaikos draw no bet (0.0)86.4%

Panathinaikos +0.2590.0%

Panathinaikos +0.593.6%

Panathinaikos +0.7594.9%

Panathinaikos +1.096.2%

Panathinaikos +1.598.9%

Panathinaikos +2.099.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Panathinaikos win1.26

Draw6.96

CSKA 1948 Sofia win15.51

Over 2.51.92

Under 2.52.09

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Panathinaikos wins by more than 1 goals55%

CSKA 1948 Sofia wins by more than 1 goals1%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 06/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.