Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Rennes
46%
Draw
26%
Marseille
28%
Actual result: Rennes 1 – 0 Marseille · Rennes winJarvis gave this outcome: 46% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Rennes, negative favours Marseille) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Rennes - Marseille)+0.44
Expected total goals3.21
Expected goals Rennes / Marseille1.82 / 1.39
Both teams to score (yes / no)64.6% / 35.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.8%
Over 2.5 goals 62.1%
Over 3.5 goals 39.9%
First half
First-half result (Rennes / draw / Marseille)35.0% / 41.6% / 23.4%
A goal in the first half74.3%
Two or more in the first half44.4%
Half-time then full-time
Rennes lead at half-time then Rennes win28.6%
Marseille lead at half-time then Marseille win16.2%
Level at half-time then Rennes win15.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Rennes's side
Rennes −2.019.0%
Rennes −1.7522.7%
Rennes −1.526.3%
Rennes −1.2531.2%
Rennes −1.036.2%
Rennes −0.7541.1%
Rennes −0.546.0%
Rennes −0.2552.6%
Rennes draw no bet (0.0)59.2%
Rennes +0.2565.8%
Rennes +0.572.4%
Rennes +0.7576.1%
Rennes +1.079.7%
Rennes +1.587.0%
Rennes +2.091.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Rennes win2.17
Draw3.79
Marseille win3.63
Over 2.51.61
Under 2.52.64
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Rennes wins by more than 1 goals26%
Marseille wins by more than 1 goals13%
Corners
Expected total corners10.1
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%