Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Venezia
34%
Draw
29%
Fiorentina
36%
Actual result: Venezia 2 – 4 Fiorentina · Fiorentina winJarvis gave this outcome: 36% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Venezia, negative favours Fiorentina) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Venezia - Fiorentina)-0.04
Expected total goals2.88
Expected goals Venezia / Fiorentina1.42 / 1.46
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.5% / 39.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 goals 54.9%
Over 3.5 goals 32.6%
First half
First-half result (Venezia / draw / Fiorentina)27.1% / 44.6% / 28.3%
A goal in the first half70.4%
Two or more in the first half39.4%
Half-time then full-time
Fiorentina lead at half-time then Fiorentina win21.8%
Venezia lead at half-time then Venezia win20.6%
Level at half-time then draw18.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Venezia's side
Venezia −2.011.6%
Venezia −1.7514.3%
Venezia −1.517.0%
Venezia −1.2521.3%
Venezia −1.025.7%
Venezia −0.7530.0%
Venezia −0.534.3%
Venezia −0.2541.7%
Venezia draw no bet (0.0)49.1%
Venezia +0.2556.4%
Venezia +0.563.8%
Venezia +0.7568.2%
Venezia +1.072.7%
Venezia +1.581.7%
Venezia +2.087.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Venezia win2.91
Draw3.40
Fiorentina win2.76
Over 2.51.82
Under 2.52.22
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Venezia wins by more than 1 goals17%
Fiorentina wins by more than 1 goals18%
Corners
Expected total corners8.8
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards3.4
2.5+ cards in the match45%