Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sevilla
50%
Draw
29%
Valencia
21%
Actual result: Sevilla 1 – 0 Valencia · Sevilla winJarvis gave this outcome: 50% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sevilla, negative favours Valencia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sevilla - Valencia)+0.60
Expected total goals2.47
Expected goals Sevilla / Valencia1.53 / 0.93
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.3% / 50.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.3%
Over 2.5 goals 44.7%
Over 3.5 goals 23.5%
First half
First-half result (Sevilla / draw / Valencia)35.8% / 45.9% / 18.3%
A goal in the first half65.7%
Two or more in the first half31.8%
Half-time then full-time
Sevilla lead at half-time then Sevilla win30.6%
Level at half-time then draw19.0%
Level at half-time then Sevilla win18.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sevilla's side
Sevilla −2.018.6%
Sevilla −1.7522.5%
Sevilla −1.526.4%
Sevilla −1.2532.2%
Sevilla −1.038.0%
Sevilla −0.7543.8%
Sevilla −0.549.5%
Sevilla −0.2556.8%
Sevilla draw no bet (0.0)64.1%
Sevilla +0.2571.4%
Sevilla +0.578.7%
Sevilla +0.7582.1%
Sevilla +1.085.4%
Sevilla +1.592.1%
Sevilla +2.095.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sevilla win2.02
Draw3.43
Valencia win4.70
Over 2.52.24
Under 2.51.81
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sevilla wins by more than 1 goals26%
Valencia wins by more than 1 goals8%
Corners
Expected total corners8.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards4.9
2.5+ cards in the match53%