Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Union Berlin
39%
Draw
29%
Schalke 04
32%
Actual result: Union Berlin 1 – 3 Schalke 04 · Schalke 04 winJarvis gave this outcome: 32%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Union Berlin, negative favours Schalke 04) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Union Berlin - Schalke 04)+0.16
Expected total goals2.92
Expected goals Union Berlin / Schalke 041.54 / 1.38
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.9% / 39.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.9%
Over 2.5 goals 55.8%
Over 3.5 goals 33.4%
First half
First-half result (Union Berlin / draw / Schalke 04)30.2% / 44.0% / 25.8%
A goal in the first half71.0%
Two or more in the first half39.9%
Half-time then full-time
Union Berlin lead at half-time then Union Berlin win23.8%
Schalke 04 lead at half-time then Schalke 04 win19.0%
Level at half-time then draw17.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Union Berlin's side
Union Berlin −2.014.3%
Union Berlin −1.7517.3%
Union Berlin −1.520.4%
Union Berlin −1.2525.1%
Union Berlin −1.029.8%
Union Berlin −0.7534.5%
Union Berlin −0.539.2%
Union Berlin −0.2546.4%
Union Berlin draw no bet (0.0)53.6%
Union Berlin +0.2560.8%
Union Berlin +0.568.0%
Union Berlin +0.7572.2%
Union Berlin +1.076.3%
Union Berlin +1.584.6%
Union Berlin +2.089.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Union Berlin win2.55
Draw3.47
Schalke 04 win3.13
Over 2.51.79
Under 2.52.26
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Union Berlin wins by more than 1 goals20%
Schalke 04 wins by more than 1 goals15%
Corners
Expected total corners9.7
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards3.3
2.5+ cards in the match43%