Match summary
Senegal vs Iraq (World Cup), 27/06/2026, finished 5-0: Senegal won.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Senegal
78%
Draw
14%
Iraq
8%
Actual result: Senegal 5 – 0 Iraq · Senegal winJarvis gave this outcome: 78% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Senegal, negative favours Iraq) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Senegal - Iraq)+1.68
Expected total goals2.57
Expected goals Senegal / Iraq2.13 / 0.44
Both teams to score (yes / no)30.2% / 69.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.3%
Over 2.5 goals 47.5%
Over 3.5 goals 25.8%
First half
First-half result (Senegal / draw / Iraq)55.8% / 35.3% / 8.8%
A goal in the first half69.8%
Two or more in the first half31.0%
Half-time then full-time
Senegal lead at half-time then Senegal win52.6%
Level at half-time then Senegal win21.9%
Level at half-time then draw10.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Senegal's side
Senegal −2.039.8%
Senegal −1.7545.7%
Senegal −1.551.5%
Senegal −1.2558.2%
Senegal −1.064.9%
Senegal −0.7571.6%
Senegal −0.578.2%
Senegal −0.2581.7%
Senegal draw no bet (0.0)85.2%
Senegal +0.2588.6%
Senegal +0.592.1%
Senegal +0.7593.8%
Senegal +1.095.5%
Senegal +1.598.8%
Senegal +2.099.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Senegal win1.28
Draw7.21
Iraq win12.67
Over 2.52.11
Under 2.51.90
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
17.7%
2–0
17.3%
3–0
12.3%
2–1
7.7%
4–0
6.5%
0–0
6.2%
Goal margin
Senegal wins by more than 1 goals52%
Iraq wins by more than 1 goals1%
Probability trajectory · full match
Other matches on 27/06 (GMT+7)
- Norway vs France02:00 · World Cup1–4
- Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia07:00 · World Cup0–0
- Uruguay vs Spain07:00 · World Cup0–1
- New Zealand vs Belgium10:00 · World Cup1–5
- Egypt vs Iran10:00 · World Cup1–1
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.