Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Turkey
27%
Draw
22%
United States
51%
Actual result: Turkey 3 – 2 United States · Turkey winJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Turkey, negative favours United States) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Turkey - United States)-0.52
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Turkey / United States0.99 / 1.51
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.1% / 52.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 69.5%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Turkey / draw / United States)22.3% / 40.2% / 37.5%
A goal in the first half69.0%
Two or more in the first half29.6%
Half-time then full-time
United States lead at half-time then United States win30.6%
Level at half-time then United States win16.6%
Turkey lead at half-time then Turkey win14.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Turkey's side
Turkey −2.05.6%
Turkey −1.757.2%
Turkey −1.58.8%
Turkey −1.2513.3%
Turkey −1.017.7%
Turkey −0.7522.1%
Turkey −0.526.5%
Turkey −0.2532.1%
Turkey draw no bet (0.0)37.7%
Turkey +0.2543.2%
Turkey +0.548.8%
Turkey +0.7555.3%
Turkey +1.061.9%
Turkey +1.574.9%
Turkey +2.082.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Turkey win3.77
Draw4.48
United States win1.95
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–1
14.2%
1–1
10.5%
1–0
9.9%
0–2
9.4%
1–2
9.3%
0–0
6.4%
Goal margin
Turkey wins by more than 1 goals9%
United States wins by more than 1 goals25%