UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction

1 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb (Champions League), 22/07/2026, finished 1-1: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Thun 24%, the draw 25% and Dinamo Zagreb 51%; the actual result had a 25% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 3.0.

Next for Dinamo Zagreb: NEC Nijmegen (Thu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Thun

24%

Draw

25%

Dinamo Zagreb

51%

Actual result: Thun 1 – 1 Dinamo Zagreb · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 25%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Thun, negative favours Dinamo Zagreb) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Thun - Dinamo Zagreb)-0.62

Expected total goals2.96

Expected goals Thun / Dinamo Zagreb1.17 / 1.79

Both teams to score (yes / no)58.5% / 41.5%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 80.6%

Over 2.5 goals 56.9%

Over 3.5 goals 34.5%

First half

First-half result (Thun / draw / Dinamo Zagreb)21.0% / 40.9% / 38.1%

A goal in the first half72.6%

Two or more in the first half39.6%

Half-time then full-time

Dinamo Zagreb lead at half-time then Dinamo Zagreb win31.9%

Level at half-time then Dinamo Zagreb win16.9%

Level at half-time then draw14.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Thun's side

Thun −2.06.4%

Thun −1.758.1%

Thun −1.59.8%

Thun −1.2513.3%

Thun −1.016.8%

Thun −0.7520.3%

Thun −0.523.8%

Thun −0.2530.1%

Thun draw no bet (0.0)36.4%

Thun +0.2542.7%

Thun +0.549.1%

Thun +0.7554.6%

Thun +1.060.1%

Thun +1.571.1%

Thun +2.079.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Thun win4.20

Draw3.96

Dinamo Zagreb win1.96

Over 2.51.76

Under 2.52.32

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Thun wins by more than 1 goals10%

Dinamo Zagreb wins by more than 1 goals29%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Dinamo Zagreb

vs NEC NijmegenThu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs Sunderland (away)Fri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 22/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.