UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

AGF vs Lech Poznan prediction

AGF

1 – 4

Full-time

Lech Poznan

Match summary

AGF vs Lech Poznan (Champions League), 22/07/2026, finished 1-4: Lech Poznan won.

Next for Lech Poznan: Sunderland (Thu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

AGF

35%

Draw

30%

Lech Poznan

35%

Actual result: AGF 1 – 4 Lech Poznan · Lech Poznan winJarvis gave this outcome: 35%

Probability trajectory · full match

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours AGF, negative favours Lech Poznan) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Tap a row to see how that market has moved.

Supremacy (AGF - Lech Poznan)+0.00

Expected total goals2.48

Expected goals AGF / Lech Poznan1.24 / 1.24

Market-standard price (decimal)

AGF win2.86

Draw3.29

Lech Poznan win2.88

Over 2.52.22

Under 2.51.82

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 2.5 goals45.1%

Over 1.5 goals72.5%

Over 3.5 goals23.8%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from AGF's side

AGF draw no bet (0.0)50.1%

AGF −0.2542.5%

AGF +0.2557.7%

AGF −0.534.9%

AGF +0.565.3%

AGF −0.7530.1%

AGF +0.7570.1%

AGF −1.025.4%

AGF +1.074.8%

AGF −1.2520.6%

AGF −1.515.8%

AGF +1.584.3%

AGF −1.7513.2%

AGF −2.010.6%

AGF +2.089.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Goal margin

AGF wins by more than 1 goals16%

Lech Poznan wins by more than 1 goals16%

Both teams to score (yes / no)52.1% / 47.9%

First half

First-half result (AGF / draw / Lech Poznan)26.9% / 46.3% / 26.8%

A goal in the first half66.0%

Two or more in the first half32.0%

Half-time then full-time

AGF lead at half-time then AGF win20.6%

Lech Poznan lead at half-time then Lech Poznan win20.4%

Level at half-time then draw19.4%

Next fixtures of both teams

Lech Poznan

vs SunderlandThu 22/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs Benfica (away)Fri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 22/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.