North American Leagues Cup

Toluca vs Seattle Sounders prediction

3 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Toluca vs Seattle Sounders (North American Leagues Cup), 06/08/2026, finished 3-0: Toluca won. Before the match Jarvis gave Toluca 74%, the draw 17% and Seattle Sounders 9%; the actual result had a 74% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 3-0. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.3.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Toluca

74%

Draw

17%

Seattle Sounders

Actual result: Toluca 3 – 0 Seattle Sounders · Toluca winJarvis gave this outcome: 74% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Toluca, negative favours Seattle Sounders) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Toluca - Seattle Sounders)+1.70

Expected total goals3.35

Expected goals Toluca / Seattle Sounders2.52 / 0.83

Both teams to score (yes / no)52.3% / 47.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 85.4%

Over 2.5 goals 65.0%

Over 3.5 goals 43.0%

First half

First-half result (Toluca / draw / Seattle Sounders)54.6% / 34.2% / 11.3%

A goal in the first half77.0%

Two or more in the first half45.3%

Half-time then full-time

Toluca lead at half-time then Toluca win50.8%

Level at half-time then Toluca win20.4%

Level at half-time then draw10.0%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Toluca's side

Toluca −2.041.7%

Toluca −1.7547.0%

Toluca −1.552.3%

Toluca −1.2557.6%

Toluca −1.063.0%

Toluca −0.7568.3%

Toluca −0.573.6%

Toluca −0.2577.8%

Toluca draw no bet (0.0)82.1%

Toluca +0.2586.3%

Toluca +0.590.5%

Toluca +0.7592.2%

Toluca +1.093.8%

Toluca +1.597.1%

Toluca +2.098.2%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Toluca win1.36

Draw5.91

Seattle Sounders win10.56

Over 2.51.54

Under 2.52.86

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Toluca wins by more than 1 goals52%

Seattle Sounders wins by more than 1 goals3%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 06/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.