Match summary
Uzbekistan vs Colombia (World Cup), 18/06/2026, finished 1-3: Colombia won.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Uzbekistan
10%
Draw
20%
Colombia
70%
Actual result: Uzbekistan 1 – 3 Colombia · Colombia winJarvis gave this outcome: 70% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Uzbekistan, negative favours Colombia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Uzbekistan - Colombia)-1.37
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Uzbekistan / Colombia0.56 / 1.94
Both teams to score (yes / no)36.8% / 63.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.2%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Uzbekistan / draw / Colombia)10.4% / 39.9% / 49.6%
A goal in the first half67.6%
Two or more in the first half31.0%
Half-time then full-time
Colombia lead at half-time then Colombia win46.0%
Level at half-time then Colombia win22.0%
Level at half-time then draw13.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Uzbekistan's side
Uzbekistan −2.01.3%
Uzbekistan −1.751.7%
Uzbekistan −1.52.2%
Uzbekistan −1.254.1%
Uzbekistan −1.06.1%
Uzbekistan −0.758.0%
Uzbekistan −0.59.9%
Uzbekistan −0.2514.8%
Uzbekistan draw no bet (0.0)19.8%
Uzbekistan +0.2524.7%
Uzbekistan +0.529.7%
Uzbekistan +0.7536.3%
Uzbekistan +1.042.9%
Uzbekistan +1.556.0%
Uzbekistan +2.067.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Uzbekistan win10.11
Draw5.05
Colombia win1.42
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–1
16.0%
0–2
15.4%
0–3
9.9%
1–1
8.9%
1–2
8.7%
0–0
8.2%
Goal margin
Uzbekistan wins by more than 1 goals2%
Colombia wins by more than 1 goals44%
Probability trajectory · full match
Other matches on 18/06 (GMT+7)
- Portugal vs DR Congo00:00 · World Cup1–1
- England vs Croatia03:00 · World Cup4–2
- Ghana vs Panama06:00 · World Cup1–0
- Czech Republic vs South Africa23:00 · World Cup1–1
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.