English Football League Cup

Watford vs Peterborough prediction

1 – 5

Full-time

Match summary

Watford vs Peterborough (English Football League Cup), 26/08/2026, finished 1-5: Peterborough won. Before the match Jarvis gave Watford 50%, the draw 27% and Peterborough 24%; the actual result had a 24% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 6 goals; Jarvis expected 2.9.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Watford

50%

Draw

27%

Peterborough

24%

Actual result: Watford 1 – 5 Peterborough · Peterborough winJarvis gave this outcome: 24%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Watford, negative favours Peterborough) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Watford - Peterborough)+0.59

Expected total goals2.90

Expected goals Watford / Peterborough1.74 / 1.16

Both teams to score (yes / no)58.0% / 42.0%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 80.0%

Over 2.5 goals 55.4%

Over 3.5 goals 33.0%

First half

First-half result (Watford / draw / Peterborough)36.9% / 42.4% / 20.7%

A goal in the first half71.4%

Two or more in the first half39.0%

Half-time then full-time

Watford lead at half-time then Watford win31.0%

Level at half-time then Watford win17.0%

Level at half-time then draw16.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Watford's side

Watford −2.020.2%

Watford −1.7524.1%

Watford −1.528.0%

Watford −1.2533.4%

Watford −1.038.8%

Watford −0.7544.2%

Watford −0.549.7%

Watford −0.2556.3%

Watford draw no bet (0.0)63.0%

Watford +0.2569.6%

Watford +0.576.3%

Watford +0.7579.7%

Watford +1.083.2%

Watford +1.590.1%

Watford +2.093.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Watford win2.01

Draw3.75

Peterborough win4.22

Over 2.51.81

Under 2.52.24

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Watford wins by more than 1 goals28%

Peterborough wins by more than 1 goals10%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 26/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.