Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Academico de Viseu
35%
Santa Clara
32%
Actual result: Academico de Viseu 0 – 1 Santa Clara · Santa Clara winJarvis gave this outcome: 32%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Academico de Viseu, negative favours Santa Clara) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Academico de Viseu - Santa Clara)+0.05
Expected total goals2.15
Expected goals Academico de Viseu / Santa Clara1.10 / 1.05
Both teams to score (yes / no)45.3% / 54.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 65.2%
Over 2.5 goals 36.3%
Over 3.5 goals 17.0%
First half
First-half result (Academico de Viseu / draw / Santa Clara)25.7% / 50.2% / 24.1%
A goal in the first half60.6%
Two or more in the first half26.5%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw22.9%
Academico de Viseu lead at half-time then Academico de Viseu win20.2%
Santa Clara lead at half-time then Santa Clara win18.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Academico de Viseu's side
Academico de Viseu −2.09.7%
Academico de Viseu −1.7512.2%
Academico de Viseu −1.514.8%
Academico de Viseu −1.2519.7%
Academico de Viseu −1.024.7%
Academico de Viseu −0.7529.6%
Academico de Viseu −0.534.5%
Academico de Viseu −0.2543.0%
Academico de Viseu draw no bet (0.0)51.4%
Academico de Viseu +0.2559.8%
Academico de Viseu +0.568.2%
Academico de Viseu +0.7572.9%
Academico de Viseu +1.077.6%
Academico de Viseu +1.586.9%
Academico de Viseu +2.091.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Academico de Viseu win2.89
Draw2.97
Santa Clara win3.14
Over 2.52.76
Under 2.51.57
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Academico de Viseu wins by more than 1 goals15%
Santa Clara wins by more than 1 goals13%
