English Community Shield

Arsenal vs Man City prediction

3 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Arsenal vs Man City (English Community Shield), 16/08/2026, finished 3-0: Arsenal won. Before the match Jarvis gave Arsenal 35%, the draw 30% and Man City 36%; the actual result had a 35% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.6. Last 10 meetings: Arsenal won 2, 3 drawn, Man City won 5.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Arsenal

35%

Draw

30%

Man City

36%

Actual result: Arsenal 3 – 0 Man City · Arsenal winJarvis gave this outcome: 35%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Arsenal, negative favours Man City) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Arsenal - Man City)-0.02

Expected total goals2.65

Expected goals Arsenal / Man City1.32 / 1.33

Both teams to score (yes / no)55.6% / 44.4%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 75.9%

Over 2.5 goals 49.4%

Over 3.5 goals 27.5%

First half

First-half result (Arsenal / draw / Man City)27.2% / 45.1% / 27.7%

A goal in the first half68.1%

Two or more in the first half35.0%

Half-time then full-time

Man City lead at half-time then Man City win21.2%

Arsenal lead at half-time then Arsenal win20.6%

Level at half-time then draw18.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Arsenal's side

Arsenal −2.011.0%

Arsenal −1.7513.7%

Arsenal −1.516.3%

Arsenal −1.2520.9%

Arsenal −1.025.6%

Arsenal −0.7530.2%

Arsenal −0.534.8%

Arsenal −0.2542.2%

Arsenal draw no bet (0.0)49.6%

Arsenal +0.2557.0%

Arsenal +0.564.4%

Arsenal +0.7569.1%

Arsenal +1.073.8%

Arsenal +1.583.1%

Arsenal +2.088.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Arsenal win2.87

Draw3.38

Man City win2.81

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.98

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Arsenal wins by more than 1 goals16%

Man City wins by more than 1 goals17%

Corners

Expected total corners9.2

6.5+ corners in the match44%

Cards

Expected total cards3.0

2.5+ cards in the match58%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Arsenal

vs Nottingham Forest (away)Sun 18/10, 22:30 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 59% / 26% / 16%
vs Bayern Munich (away)Thu 22/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27

Man City

vs AEK AthensWed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
vs Aston Villa (away)Sat 24/10, 18:30 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27

Other matches on 16/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.