English Premier League

Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction

0 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Aston Villa vs Arsenal (Premier League), 01/09/2026, finished 0-1: Arsenal won. Before the match Jarvis gave Aston Villa 14%, the draw 22% and Arsenal 63%; the actual result had a 63% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-2. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.8. Last 10 meetings: Aston Villa won 3, 1 drawn, Arsenal won 6.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Aston Villa

14%

Draw

22%

Arsenal

63%

Actual result: Aston Villa 0 – 1 Arsenal · Arsenal winJarvis gave this outcome: 63% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Aston Villa, negative favours Arsenal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Aston Villa - Arsenal)-1.14

Expected total goals2.84

Expected goals Aston Villa / Arsenal0.85 / 1.99

Both teams to score (yes / no)50.3% / 49.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 78.4%

Over 2.5 goals 54.0%

Over 3.5 goals 31.7%

First half

First-half result (Aston Villa / draw / Arsenal)14.4% / 39.8% / 45.8%

A goal in the first half71.4%

Two or more in the first half37.3%

Half-time then full-time

Arsenal lead at half-time then Arsenal win41.1%

Level at half-time then Arsenal win20.0%

Level at half-time then draw13.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Aston Villa's side

Aston Villa −2.02.9%

Aston Villa −1.753.8%

Aston Villa −1.54.7%

Aston Villa −1.257.1%

Aston Villa −1.09.6%

Aston Villa −0.7512.0%

Aston Villa −0.514.4%

Aston Villa −0.2520.0%

Aston Villa draw no bet (0.0)25.6%

Aston Villa +0.2531.2%

Aston Villa +0.536.8%

Aston Villa +0.7542.8%

Aston Villa +1.048.8%

Aston Villa +1.560.7%

Aston Villa +2.070.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Aston Villa win6.93

Draw4.46

Arsenal win1.58

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.18

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Aston Villa wins by more than 1 goals5%

Arsenal wins by more than 1 goals39%

Corners

Expected total corners9.6

6.5+ corners in the match50%

Cards

Expected total cards3.4

2.5+ cards in the match45%