Spanish La Liga

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano prediction

5 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano (La Liga), 01/09/2026, finished 5-2: Barcelona won. Before the match Jarvis gave Barcelona 89%, the draw 8% and Rayo Vallecano 3%; the actual result had a 89% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 4-0. The match had 7 goals; Jarvis expected 4.2. Last 10 meetings: Barcelona won 5, 3 drawn, Rayo Vallecano won 2.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Barcelona

89%

Draw

Rayo Vallecano

Actual result: Barcelona 5 – 2 Rayo Vallecano · Barcelona winJarvis gave this outcome: 89% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Barcelona, negative favours Rayo Vallecano) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano)+2.93

Expected total goals4.24

Expected goals Barcelona / Rayo Vallecano3.59 / 0.65

Both teams to score (yes / no)46.9% / 53.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 92.6%

Over 2.5 goals 79.5%

Over 3.5 goals 61.2%

First half

First-half result (Barcelona / draw / Rayo Vallecano)70.6% / 23.3% / 6.0%

A goal in the first half84.9%

Two or more in the first half57.2%

Half-time then full-time

Barcelona lead at half-time then Barcelona win68.8%

Level at half-time then Barcelona win17.7%

Level at half-time then draw4.3%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Barcelona's side

Barcelona −2.065.7%

Barcelona −1.7570.4%

Barcelona −1.575.2%

Barcelona −1.2578.6%

Barcelona −1.082.1%

Barcelona −0.7585.6%

Barcelona −0.589.1%

Barcelona −0.2591.0%

Barcelona draw no bet (0.0)93.0%

Barcelona +0.2594.9%

Barcelona +0.596.8%

Barcelona +0.7597.4%

Barcelona +1.098.0%

Barcelona +1.599.2%

Barcelona +2.099.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Barcelona win1.12

Draw13.05

Rayo Vallecano win31.15

Over 2.51.26

Under 2.54.89

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Barcelona wins by more than 1 goals75%

Rayo Vallecano wins by more than 1 goals1%

Corners

Expected total corners11.0

6.5+ corners in the match54%

Cards

Expected total cards2.6

2.5+ cards in the match49%