Italian Serie A

Atalanta vs Bologna prediction

1 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Atalanta vs Bologna (Serie A), 01/09/2026, finished 1-0: Atalanta won. Before the match Jarvis gave Atalanta 50%, the draw 28% and Bologna 22%; the actual result had a 50% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.6.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Atalanta

50%

Draw

28%

Bologna

22%

Actual result: Atalanta 1 – 0 Bologna · Atalanta winJarvis gave this outcome: 50% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Atalanta, negative favours Bologna) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Atalanta - Bologna)+0.59

Expected total goals2.57

Expected goals Atalanta / Bologna1.58 / 0.99

Both teams to score (yes / no)51.1% / 48.9%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 73.9%

Over 2.5 goals 47.3%

Over 3.5 goals 25.7%

First half

First-half result (Atalanta / draw / Bologna)36.3% / 44.4% / 19.3%

A goal in the first half67.4%

Two or more in the first half33.1%

Half-time then full-time

Atalanta lead at half-time then Atalanta win30.7%

Level at half-time then Atalanta win17.7%

Level at half-time then draw17.6%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Atalanta's side

Atalanta −2.018.9%

Atalanta −1.7522.8%

Atalanta −1.526.7%

Atalanta −1.2532.5%

Atalanta −1.038.2%

Atalanta −0.7544.0%

Atalanta −0.549.8%

Atalanta −0.2556.7%

Atalanta draw no bet (0.0)63.7%

Atalanta +0.2570.6%

Atalanta +0.577.6%

Atalanta +0.7581.1%

Atalanta +1.084.6%

Atalanta +1.591.6%

Atalanta +2.094.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Atalanta win2.01

Draw3.60

Bologna win4.45

Over 2.52.11

Under 2.51.90

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Atalanta wins by more than 1 goals27%

Bologna wins by more than 1 goals8%

Corners

Expected total corners9.4

6.5+ corners in the match47%

Cards

Expected total cards1.9

2.5+ cards in the match30%