Italian Serie A

Atalanta vs Sassuolo prediction

2 – 1
Full-time

Match summary

Atalanta vs Sassuolo (Serie A), 24/08/2026, finished 2-1: Atalanta won. Before the match Jarvis gave Atalanta 62%, the draw 23% and Sassuolo 15%; the actual result had a 62% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.7.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Atalanta
62%
Draw
23%
Sassuolo
15%
Actual result: Atalanta 2 – 1 Sassuolo · Atalanta winJarvis gave this outcome: 62% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Atalanta, negative favours Sassuolo) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Atalanta - Sassuolo)+1.09
Expected total goals2.75
Expected goals Atalanta / Sassuolo1.92 / 0.83
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.7% / 51.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.7%
Over 2.5 goals 51.7%
Over 3.5 goals 29.6%
First half
First-half result (Atalanta / draw / Sassuolo)45.0% / 40.5% / 14.5%
A goal in the first half70.3%
Two or more in the first half35.7%
Half-time then full-time
Atalanta lead at half-time then Atalanta win40.3%
Level at half-time then Atalanta win20.0%
Level at half-time then draw14.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Atalanta's side
Atalanta −2.028.3%
Atalanta −1.7533.2%
Atalanta −1.538.0%
Atalanta −1.2544.1%
Atalanta −1.050.2%
Atalanta −0.7556.3%
Atalanta −0.562.4%
Atalanta −0.2568.1%
Atalanta draw no bet (0.0)73.8%
Atalanta +0.2579.5%
Atalanta +0.585.2%
Atalanta +0.7587.7%
Atalanta +1.090.3%
Atalanta +1.595.3%
Atalanta +2.097.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Atalanta win1.60
Draw4.37
Sassuolo win6.77
Over 2.51.93
Under 2.52.07

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Atalanta wins by more than 1 goals38%
Sassuolo wins by more than 1 goals5%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match50%
Cards
Expected total cards2.8
2.5+ cards in the match53%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

  • vs AC Milan (away)Sun 18/10, 23:00 GMT+7 · Serie A 26-27
  • vs FrosinoneSun 25/10, 21:00 GMT+7 · Serie A 26-27
  • vs Como (away)Sat 24/10, 20:00 GMT+7 · Serie A 26-27
  • vs LazioWed 28/10, 00:30 GMT+7 · Serie A 26-27

Other matches on 24/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Serie A table, latest

#TeamPGDPts
1Internazionale6+1016
2Lazio6+716
3AS Roma6+1114
...
9Napoli6+410
10Atalanta609
11Sassuolo7-28
12Torino6-27

See the full Serie A table