Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Atletico Madrid
71%
Draw
19%
Osasuna
10%
Actual result: Atletico Madrid 4 – 0 Osasuna · Atletico Madrid winJarvis gave this outcome: 71% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Atletico Madrid, negative favours Osasuna) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Atletico Madrid - Osasuna)+1.44
Expected total goals2.77
Expected goals Atletico Madrid / Osasuna2.11 / 0.67
Both teams to score (yes / no)42.9% / 57.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.7%
Over 2.5 goals 52.4%
Over 3.5 goals 30.2%
First half
First-half result (Atletico Madrid / draw / Osasuna)50.9% / 37.9% / 11.2%
A goal in the first half71.1%
Two or more in the first half35.7%
Half-time then full-time
Atletico Madrid lead at half-time then Atletico Madrid win47.1%
Level at half-time then Atletico Madrid win21.3%
Level at half-time then draw12.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Atletico Madrid's side
Atletico Madrid −2.035.3%
Atletico Madrid −1.7540.7%
Atletico Madrid −1.546.1%
Atletico Madrid −1.2552.2%
Atletico Madrid −1.058.4%
Atletico Madrid −0.7564.5%
Atletico Madrid −0.570.7%
Atletico Madrid −0.2575.4%
Atletico Madrid draw no bet (0.0)80.2%
Atletico Madrid +0.2585.0%
Atletico Madrid +0.589.8%
Atletico Madrid +0.7591.7%
Atletico Madrid +1.093.6%
Atletico Madrid +1.597.3%
Atletico Madrid +2.098.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Atletico Madrid win1.42
Draw5.24
Osasuna win9.77
Over 2.51.91
Under 2.52.10
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Atletico Madrid wins by more than 1 goals46%
Osasuna wins by more than 1 goals3%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards3.0
2.5+ cards in the match57%