Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sunderland
66%
Draw
21%
Az Alkmaar
13%
Actual result: Sunderland 1 – 0 Az Alkmaar · Sunderland winJarvis gave this outcome: 66% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sunderland, negative favours Az Alkmaar) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sunderland - Az Alkmaar)+1.26
Expected total goals2.84
Expected goals Sunderland / Az Alkmaar2.05 / 0.79
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.0% / 52.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.0%
Over 2.5 goals 54.1%
Over 3.5 goals 31.8%
First half
First-half result (Sunderland / draw / Az Alkmaar)48.1% / 38.5% / 13.5%
A goal in the first half71.8%
Two or more in the first half37.0%
Half-time then full-time
Sunderland lead at half-time then Sunderland win43.6%
Level at half-time then Sunderland win20.3%
Level at half-time then draw12.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sunderland's side
Sunderland −2.031.9%
Sunderland −1.7537.0%
Sunderland −1.542.1%
Sunderland −1.2548.1%
Sunderland −1.054.2%
Sunderland −0.7560.3%
Sunderland −0.566.3%
Sunderland −0.2571.5%
Sunderland draw no bet (0.0)76.6%
Sunderland +0.2581.8%
Sunderland +0.587.0%
Sunderland +0.7589.2%
Sunderland +1.091.5%
Sunderland +1.596.1%
Sunderland +2.097.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sunderland win1.51
Draw4.85
Az Alkmaar win7.67
Over 2.51.85
Under 2.52.18
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sunderland wins by more than 1 goals42%
Az Alkmaar wins by more than 1 goals4%
Corners
Expected total corners9.3
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards3.1
2.5+ cards in the match61%