Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Deportivo
36%
Draw
33%
Sevilla
31%
Actual result: Deportivo 0 – 1 Sevilla · Sevilla winJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Deportivo, negative favours Sevilla) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Deportivo - Sevilla)+0.09
Expected total goals2.33
Expected goals Deportivo / Sevilla1.21 / 1.12
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.6% / 50.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 69.9%
Over 2.5 goals 41.2%
Over 3.5 goals 20.7%
First half
First-half result (Deportivo / draw / Sevilla)27.1% / 48.7% / 24.3%
A goal in the first half63.3%
Two or more in the first half29.9%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw21.5%
Deportivo lead at half-time then Deportivo win21.3%
Sevilla lead at half-time then Sevilla win18.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Deportivo's side
Deportivo −2.011.0%
Deportivo −1.7513.7%
Deportivo −1.516.4%
Deportivo −1.2521.3%
Deportivo −1.026.2%
Deportivo −0.7531.1%
Deportivo −0.535.9%
Deportivo −0.2544.1%
Deportivo draw no bet (0.0)52.3%
Deportivo +0.2560.4%
Deportivo +0.568.6%
Deportivo +0.7573.1%
Deportivo +1.077.5%
Deportivo +1.586.4%
Deportivo +2.091.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Deportivo win2.78
Draw3.06
Sevilla win3.19
Over 2.52.43
Under 2.51.70
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Deportivo wins by more than 1 goals16%
Sevilla wins by more than 1 goals14%
Corners
Expected total corners9.1
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards3.0
2.5+ cards in the match57%