Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Barcelona
92%
Draw
5%
Racing Santander
3%
Actual result: Barcelona 7 – 2 Racing Santander · Barcelona winJarvis gave this outcome: 92% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Barcelona, negative favours Racing Santander) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Barcelona - Racing Santander)+3.44
Expected total goals5.09
Expected goals Barcelona / Racing Santander4.27 / 0.82
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.2% / 44.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 96.1%
Over 2.5 goals 88.3%
Over 3.5 goals 74.7%
First half
First-half result (Barcelona / draw / Racing Santander)75.5% / 17.8% / 6.7%
A goal in the first half90.4%
Two or more in the first half66.2%
Half-time then full-time
Barcelona lead at half-time then Barcelona win73.6%
Level at half-time then Barcelona win14.3%
Racing Santander lead at half-time then Barcelona win3.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Barcelona's side
Barcelona −2.072.7%
Barcelona −1.7576.7%
Barcelona −1.580.6%
Barcelona −1.2583.4%
Barcelona −1.086.2%
Barcelona −0.7588.9%
Barcelona −0.591.7%
Barcelona −0.2593.0%
Barcelona draw no bet (0.0)94.3%
Barcelona +0.2595.7%
Barcelona +0.597.0%
Barcelona +0.7597.6%
Barcelona +1.098.1%
Barcelona +1.599.3%
Barcelona +2.099.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Barcelona win1.09
Draw18.78
Racing Santander win33.34
Over 2.51.13
Under 2.58.53
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Barcelona wins by more than 1 goals80%
Racing Santander wins by more than 1 goals1%
Corners
Expected total corners11.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards2.8
2.5+ cards in the match53%