UEFA Europa League Qualifiers

Benfica vs Hearts prediction

6 – 1
Full-time

Match summary

Benfica vs Hearts (Europa League), 07/08/2026, finished 6-1: Benfica won. Before the match Jarvis gave Benfica 89%, the draw 8% and Hearts 3%; the actual result had a 89% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 3-0. The match had 7 goals; Jarvis expected 3.9.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Benfica
89%
Draw
8%
Hearts
3%
Actual result: Benfica 6 – 1 Hearts · Benfica winJarvis gave this outcome: 89% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Benfica, negative favours Hearts) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Benfica - Hearts)+2.84
Expected total goals3.94
Expected goals Benfica / Hearts3.39 / 0.55
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.1% / 58.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 90.7%
Over 2.5 goals 75.3%
Over 3.5 goals 55.4%
First half
First-half result (Benfica / draw / Hearts)69.8% / 25.0% / 5.2%
A goal in the first half82.5%
Two or more in the first half53.4%
Half-time then full-time
Benfica lead at half-time then Benfica win68.2%
Level at half-time then Benfica win18.9%
Level at half-time then draw5.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Benfica's side
Benfica −2.064.3%
Benfica −1.7569.3%
Benfica −1.574.3%
Benfica −1.2578.0%
Benfica −1.081.7%
Benfica −0.7585.3%
Benfica −0.589.0%
Benfica −0.2591.1%
Benfica draw no bet (0.0)93.1%
Benfica +0.2595.2%
Benfica +0.597.2%
Benfica +0.7597.8%
Benfica +1.098.3%
Benfica +1.599.4%
Benfica +2.099.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Benfica win1.12
Draw12.17
Hearts win36.21
Over 2.51.33
Under 2.54.04

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Benfica wins by more than 1 goals74%
Hearts wins by more than 1 goals1%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

  • vs Omonia Nicosia (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
  • vs Lech PoznanFri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 07/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Europa League table, latest

#TeamPGDPts
1Juventus2+66
2Bayer Leverkusen2+66
3Benfica2+56
4Besiktas2+46

See the full Europa League table