UEFA Europa League Qualifiers

Thun vs Vikingur Reykjavik prediction

Thun
3 – 0
Full-time

Match summary

Thun vs Vikingur Reykjavik (Europa League), 07/08/2026, finished 3-0: Thun won. Before the match Jarvis gave Thun 63%, the draw 21% and Vikingur Reykjavik 16%; the actual result had a 63% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.1.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Thun
63%
Draw
21%
Vikingur Reykjavik
16%
Actual result: Thun 3 – 0 Vikingur Reykjavik · Thun winJarvis gave this outcome: 63% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Thun, negative favours Vikingur Reykjavik) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Thun - Vikingur Reykjavik)+1.15
Expected total goals3.14
Expected goals Thun / Vikingur Reykjavik2.14 / 0.99
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.4% / 43.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.9%
Over 2.5 goals 60.7%
Over 3.5 goals 38.3%
First half
First-half result (Thun / draw / Vikingur Reykjavik)46.4% / 37.9% / 15.7%
A goal in the first half74.7%
Two or more in the first half42.1%
Half-time then full-time
Thun lead at half-time then Thun win41.3%
Level at half-time then Thun win19.2%
Level at half-time then draw12.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Thun's side
Thun −2.030.7%
Thun −1.7535.5%
Thun −1.540.3%
Thun −1.2546.0%
Thun −1.051.6%
Thun −0.7557.3%
Thun −0.562.9%
Thun −0.2568.3%
Thun draw no bet (0.0)73.7%
Thun +0.2579.0%
Thun +0.584.4%
Thun +0.7586.9%
Thun +1.089.4%
Thun +1.594.4%
Thun +2.096.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Thun win1.59
Draw4.66
Vikingur Reykjavik win6.41
Over 2.51.65
Under 2.52.54

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Thun wins by more than 1 goals40%
Vikingur Reykjavik wins by more than 1 goals6%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 07/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.