Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Red Bull Salzburg
68%
Pafos FC
13%
Actual result: Red Bull Salzburg 1 – 0 Pafos FC · Red Bull Salzburg winJarvis gave this outcome: 68% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Red Bull Salzburg, negative favours Pafos FC) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Red Bull Salzburg - Pafos FC)+1.33
Expected total goals2.92
Expected goals Red Bull Salzburg / Pafos FC2.13 / 0.80
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.2% / 51.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.7%
Over 2.5 goals 56.0%
Over 3.5 goals 33.6%
First half
First-half result (Red Bull Salzburg / draw / Pafos FC)49.8% / 36.4% / 13.7%
A goal in the first half73.4%
Two or more in the first half37.7%
Half-time then full-time
Red Bull Salzburg lead at half-time then Red Bull Salzburg win45.1%
Level at half-time then Red Bull Salzburg win19.9%
Level at half-time then draw11.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Red Bull Salzburg's side
Red Bull Salzburg −2.033.5%
Red Bull Salzburg −1.7538.6%
Red Bull Salzburg −1.543.8%
Red Bull Salzburg −1.2549.9%
Red Bull Salzburg −1.056.0%
Red Bull Salzburg −0.7562.1%
Red Bull Salzburg −0.568.3%
Red Bull Salzburg −0.2572.9%
Red Bull Salzburg draw no bet (0.0)77.6%
Red Bull Salzburg +0.2582.3%
Red Bull Salzburg +0.587.0%
Red Bull Salzburg +0.7589.3%
Red Bull Salzburg +1.091.6%
Red Bull Salzburg +1.596.3%
Red Bull Salzburg +2.097.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Red Bull Salzburg win1.46
Draw5.34
Pafos FC win7.69
Over 2.51.79
Under 2.52.27
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Red Bull Salzburg wins by more than 1 goals44%
Pafos FC wins by more than 1 goals4%
